The world’s largest oil and gas companies stand ready to rake in an extra $234 billion in windfall profits by the end of 2026. A fresh analysis by The Guardian is based on Rystad Energy data. It reveals this massive gain if crude prices hold steady around $100 a barrel. Moreover, the surge traces directly back to the US-Israeli war on Iran that erupted in late February. It sent oil prices climbing from about $70 a barrel.
Major Producers Cash In on Surging Prices
Saudi Aramco leads the pack. It expects to bank an extra $25.5 billion. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation follows closely with $12.1 billion in added earnings, while ExxonMobil looks set to add $11 billion and Chevron another $9.2 billion. Russia’s oil heavyweights also join the winners’ circle. Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil together stand to pocket nearly $24 billion more than they would have earned before the conflict. In addition, the top 100 global oil and gas firms already recorded more than $30 million in paper profits every hour during the first month of fighting. Analysts reached these figures by comparing pre-war free cash flow at lower prices with the higher revenues. These now flow from elevated crude markets.
Timing Issues and Disruptions Limit Immediate Gains
However, higher prices do not always translate into bigger bottom-line profits right away. ExxonMobil already warns that its first-quarter 2026 earnings could fall below the previous quarter. Massive non-cash charges, derivative timing effects worth $3.3 billion to $5.3 billion, and a six-percent drop in global production all weigh on results. The company also faces a one-time impairment charge of $600 million to $800 million. This comes after war-related damage hit two LNG trains in Qatar. As a result, some of the windfall gains may unwind only in later quarters. This will happen when physical shipments finally catch up.
Oil executives now watch global markets closely while the conflict continues to reshape energy flows. For consumers, the higher prices at the pump serve as a daily reminder. It shows how far-away wars can hit household budgets hard.
