Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to ease slightly in September 2026, although energy and transport costs continue to drive price pressures.
A consensus of 13 brokerage house estimates puts September CPI inflation at 10.22% year-on-year. The median forecast stands at 10.20%, compared with August’s 11.1% reading.
Analysts expect the annual decline to reflect a high base effect from last year. However, monthly inflation is projected to remain elevated as energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions affect domestic costs.
Energy And Transport Keep Price Pressures High
Brokerages estimate average monthly inflation at 1.11%, with the median forecast at 1.10%. Transport, petroleum and electricity charges are expected to remain major contributors to the increase.
Topline Securities forecasts inflation between 10.25% and 10.75% year-on-year. It expects monthly inflation to reach 1.30%, mainly due to a 6.5% increase in retail fuel prices and higher housing costs.
The brokerage noted that electricity prices increased 9.58% month-on-month. The rise followed a Fuel Charges Adjustment of Rs2.06 per kilowatt-hour and a Quarterly Tariff Adjustment of Rs0.52 per unit.
Meanwhile, Ismail Iqbal Securities expects inflation at 10.5% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month. It said energy had replaced food as the main inflation driver during September.
Food Prices Provide Some Relief
Optimus Capital Management expects CPI inflation at 10.4% year-on-year and 1.2% month-on-month. It noted that falling food prices provided some relief despite rising energy costs.
Tomato prices dropped 25% month-on-month, while chicken prices declined 8.3%. Fresh fruits and potatoes also recorded declines, partly offsetting increases in wheat and fresh milk prices.
The forecasts broadly align with the State Bank of Pakistan’s recent assessment. The central bank kept its policy rate at 11.5% after its September 14 meeting and highlighted risks from global commodity prices, energy tariffs and supply disruptions.
The SBP also expects inflation to remain vulnerable to geopolitical developments and weather conditions. However, positive real interest rates could help limit second-round inflationary pressures in the coming months.
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