Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook for 2027, highlighting a growing imbalance between rising global supply and weakening demand, especially from China.
In its latest note, the bank now expects Brent crude to average around $80 per barrel in 2027. It also points to a wave of new supply from non-OPEC producers, including the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the United Arab Emirates, as a key factor weighing on prices.
At the same time, Goldman sees demand growth slowing structurally. The bank said China’s shift toward electric vehicles, rail transport, and other alternatives is already reducing oil consumption. Analysts estimated that part of the demand weakness will persist as EV adoption accelerates and fuel usage trends downward in major Asian markets.
However, the outlook remains highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. The bank warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could still trigger sharp price spikes. In a worst-case scenario, Brent could average above $110 per barrel if supply flows remain restricted into late 2026, while a prolonged closure could push prices as high as $140 in early 2027.
Conversely, if tensions ease sooner and oil shipments recover faster, prices could fall significantly. In that scenario, Brent may drop to around $70 by late 2026 and slip further toward $60 per barrel in 2027, supported by strong output from global producers and softer demand conditions.
Overall, Goldman’s revised forecast reflects a market entering a new phase of volatility, where supply expansion and energy transition trends are increasingly shaping long-term oil prices more than short-term shocks.
