ISLAMABAD: Fitch, a global currency rating agency, revised its forecast about the value of Pakistani rupee against the US dollar. In other words, Fitch’s forecast about Pakistani rupee has, once again, proved wrong.
For example, in early 2026, Fitch predicted depreciation of Pakistani rupee to 288 in 2026. However, after seeing a stability in the value of rupee, Fitch has reversed its forecast as it says the Pakistani currency will remain stable at Rs 278 versus US dollar through 2026.
The forecast represents a major shift from BMI’s earlier projection that the currency would weaken to PKR288 against the dollar by year-end. BMI said stronger foreign exchange reserves, elevated interest rates and improved access to global capital markets have reduced devaluation risks.
Foreign exchange reserves reached $17.1 billion on August 28, covering around 2.6 months of imports. Strong remittances and continued IMF and bilateral support have strengthened the external position.
Interest rates support currency stability
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan raised its policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.5 percent in April as inflation accelerated.
BMI expects the rate to remain unchanged despite higher energy and food prices. The firm said policymakers would seek to protect economic growth while limiting inflationary pressures.
The current rate remains well above the 7 percent level recorded before Pakistan’s 2022-23 balance-of-payments crisis. Therefore, it continues to discourage capital outflows and support the rupee.
Pakistan’s improved access to international financing could further strengthen reserves and reduce refinancing risks. On September 3, the country raised $3 billion through its largest-ever international bond sale.
However, BMI expects the rupee to weaken gradually to around PKR292 per dollar by the end of 2027.
The firm cited declining export competitiveness and a widening trade deficit as key pressures. Pakistan’s merchandise trade deficit increased 34.6 percent to $39.6 billion during fiscal year 2025/26.
BMI warned that escalation of the US-Iran conflict could trigger earlier or sharper currency depreciation.
For the latest updates, visit and follow The Truth International website (www.thetruthinternational.com) and subscribe our YouTube Channel.
