First Day of Safar Expected on July 16
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has predicted that the crescent marking the beginning of Safar-ul-Muzaffar is likely to be sighted on the evening of July 15.
If the moon is sighted and the testimony is officially accepted, the first day of Safar is expected to fall on July 16 across Pakistan.
The prediction is based on astronomical calculations, the expected age of the new moon and weather conditions in different parts of the country.
However, the PMD forecast does not represent the final religious announcement. The official date will be declared by the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee after reviewing moon sighting testimonies.
Astronomical Conditions Favour Crescent Visibility
According to the PMD, the new moon is expected to be born at 2:43pm on July 14.
By the evening of July 15, the crescent will have reached an age considered suitable for possible visibility in Pakistan.
The department said astronomical conditions are expected to be highly favourable for moon sighting across several parts of the country.
Weather conditions in most regions, including Sindh, are also expected to support visibility. Clear skies and limited cloud cover could improve the chances of observing the crescent.
The moon’s position above the horizon, its age at sunset and the time between sunset and moonset are among the main factors used in preparing the forecast.
The PMD said its scientific calculations indicate a strong possibility that the Safar crescent will be visible on July 15.
Karachi to Have Longer Moon-Sighting Window
Moon sighting conditions are expected to be particularly favourable in Karachi.
According to the PMD, the crescent may remain above the horizon for approximately 64 minutes after sunset.
Observers in Karachi could have until around 8:28pm to search for the moon, providing a relatively long visibility window.
A longer period between sunset and moonset generally improves the possibility of crescent sighting, particularly when atmospheric and weather conditions remain clear.
Official and private moon sighting teams are expected to observe the western horizon from different locations in Karachi and other parts of the country.
Reports from recognised observers will be submitted to the relevant zonal and central moon sighting committees.
Ruet-e-Hilal Committee to Make Final Announcement
The Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee is expected to meet on July 15 to determine the beginning of Safar-ul-Muzaffar.
The committee will examine verified moon sighting testimonies received from across Pakistan. Zonal committees are also expected to hold meetings in major cities and forward their findings to the central body.
Religious scholars, meteorological experts and government representatives usually attend the committee meeting.
The committee will assess whether the testimonies meet the required religious and procedural standards before making a final decision.
If credible moon sighting reports are received and accepted, Safar will begin on July 16. If the crescent is not officially sighted, the month will begin one day later.
The public has been advised to wait for the official announcement from the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee rather than relying solely on predictions or unofficial social media reports.
