Survey suggests opposition bloc could secure parliamentary majority if voting were held now
JERUSALEM: Israel’s opposition bloc is projected to win a parliamentary majority in the October 27, 2026 general election, according to a new Maariv poll published on Friday, which indicates growing support for opposition parties and declining backing for the current governing coalition.
The survey projects the opposition bloc would secure 62 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition would win 48 seats if elections were held now.
According to the poll, Netanyahu’s Likud party is tied with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! party at 22 seats each. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party is projected to receive seven seats, its lowest level since the 2022 election, while the Religious Zionist Party remains at four seats. Otzma Yehudit is forecast to win seven seats after losing support compared with previous surveys.
The poll also suggests that Blue and White and Balad would fail to cross Israel’s 3.25 percent electoral threshold.
Coalition preferences revealed
The survey found that 83 percent of respondents opposed including ultra-Orthodox parties in the next governing coalition, while only 8 percent supported their participation.
In contrast, 70 percent backed the inclusion of an Arab party in a future coalition government. Meanwhile, 10 percent opposed the idea, and 20 percent said the issue did not matter to them or expressed no opinion.
Confidence in government remains limited
Additionally, the poll indicated that public confidence in the current government’s decision-making remains relatively low. According to the findings, 38 percent of respondents believe the government can make the right decisions in the months leading to the election, while 55 percent said they lack confidence in its ability to do so.
Maariv said the survey was conducted on July 8 and 9 in cooperation with Panel4ALL Research under the direction of Menachem Lazar. The poll included 500 Jewish and Arab respondents aged 18 and above and carries a reported margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Poll findings represent a snapshot of public opinion and do not predict the final election outcome.
