Oil prices climbed further on Monday as renewed US-Iran attacks intensified concerns over prolonged supply disruptions. The latest escalation has put the Strait of Hormuz under greater pressure.
Brent crude futures rose 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel by 2354 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate crude reached $92.14 a barrel.
WTI gained 66 cents, or 0.72%, during the session. Both benchmarks also recorded strong gains last week amid renewed military action.
Brent crude rose 7.8% last week. At the same time, WTI gained nearly 10% as attacks disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The waterway previously carried about one-fifth of global oil supplies. Therefore, any prolonged disruption could have significant consequences for international energy markets.
Strait of Hormuz traffic falls sharply
The latest attacks have increased concerns about commercial shipping through the strategic waterway. Traffic has already fallen to its lowest level since May.
Kpler data showed an average of 10 commodity ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz each day over the past 10 days.
The decline reflects growing uncertainty among shipping operators. Moreover, continued attacks could further restrict the movement of oil and other commodities.
Iran is also preparing to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, made the announcement on Sunday.
He said the restricted zone would be announced in the coming days, according to Iranian state media.
US and Iran target oil tankers
The latest escalation has also involved oil tankers operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, according to US Central Command. One of the vessels was located off Kharg Island, near Iran’s key oil export hub.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it targeted three oil tankers. The vessels were travelling through what Iran described as unauthorised routes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s forces also targeted three additional US vessels in other areas, according to the statement.
The attacks have raised concerns about the growing risks facing commercial shipping. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks described the developments as a “major escalation in the maritime conflict”.
“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” it added.
The development has increased uncertainty across energy markets. Consequently, traders are watching shipping activity closely for signs of further disruption.
OPEC+ keeps October policy unchanged
Meanwhile, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October. The producer group announced the decision following its meeting on Sunday.
The group still needs to agree on new quotas before determining its next production steps.
The unchanged policy comes as markets assess the potential impact of reduced Middle Eastern supply. However, the duration of the disruption remains uncertain.
Any prolonged reduction in regional exports could keep pressure on global oil prices. Therefore, traders are closely monitoring both production decisions and developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
Supply recovery could take months
Analysts at ANZ expect the standoff between the United States and Iran to continue. They described a prolonged confrontation with calibrated military action as the most likely scenario.
Such a situation could delay the recovery of Middle Eastern oil supplies. The analysts expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026.
“We then expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, before a gradual reopening late in Q4 2026,” they said, adding that a return to pre-war throughput was not expected until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027.
The outlook suggests that supply disruptions could persist well beyond the immediate conflict. As a result, oil markets may continue facing heightened uncertainty in the months ahead.
Oil markets remain focused on Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to concerns about global oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity has already contributed to renewed pressure on crude prices.
Brent has approached the $97 mark, while WTI has moved above $92. Both benchmarks posted substantial weekly gains after the latest attacks.
However, the future direction of prices will depend heavily on developments around the waterway. Further attacks or restrictions could deepen concerns about supply availability.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to assess its production policy. Traders are also monitoring tanker movements and announcements from both Iran and the United States.
For now, renewed attacks have increased fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Consequently, the oil market remains highly sensitive to developments across the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Middle East.
