ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s provisional growth of real GDP for the year 2020-21 has been estimated at 3.94%. This growth forecasts are backed by growth estimates of the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors at 2.77%, 3.57%, and 4.43%, respectively.
Furthermore, the GDP growth for 2019-20 was revised downward from -0.38% to -0.47%. The sector-wise brief is given below.
The 103rd meeting of the National Accounts Committee to review the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was held under the Chairmanship of the Secretary Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives. The provisional estimates of the GDP and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for the year 2020-21 were presented on the basis of the latest data of 6-9 months which were annualized.
Agricultural Sector: The agriculture sector grew by 2.77% in 2020-21 as against 3.31% in 2019-20. The growth of important crops during this year is 4.65% on the back of the historic highest ever production of wheat, rice, and maize while sugarcane registered the second-highest ever production. This growth in the production of wheat, rice, sugarcane, and maize is at 8.1%, 13.6%, 22.0%, and 7.38%, respectively. However, cotton has witnessed negative growth of 22.8%, which also resulted in a 15.6% decline in cotton ginning. Other crops (vegetables, fruits and green fodder, etc.) showed positive growth of 1.41% mainly because of an increase in the production of oilseeds and vegetables. The livestock sector registered a growth of 3.1%. Forestry has grown at 1.4%.
Industrial Sector: The overall industrial sector has witnessed a positive growth of 3.57%. The value-added in the mining and quarrying sector has declined by 6.5%. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector, which is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2020 to March 2021), showed an unprecedented healthy growth of 9.29%. Major contributors to this growth are Textile (5.9%), Food Beverage & Tobacco (11.73%), Petroleum products (12.71%), Pharmaceuticals (12.57%), Chemicals (11.65%), Non-Metallic Mineral Products (24.31%), Automobiles (23.38%), and Fertilizer (5.69%). The electricity and Gas sub-sector has declined by 22.96% mainly due to lower allocation of subsidies by the government to DISCOs, low increase in output, and a higher proportional increase in intermediate consumption. The construction activity has increased by 8.34% mainly due to an increase in general government expenditure and private sector construction-related expenditures.
Services Sector: Services sector remained a major growth driver for many years and this year it witnessed a growth of 4.43% in the provisional estimates. While the wholesale and retail trade sector grew by 8.37% primarily because of an increase in the marketable surplus, the transport, storage, and communication sector has declined by 0.61%. The finance and insurance sector showed an increase of 7.84%. The remaining components of services i.e. housing, general government, and other private services have witnessed a positive growth of 4.01%, 2.20%, and 4.64%, respectively.
GDP at Current Market Prices: GDP at current market prices has also been computed and
stands at Rs.47,709 billion for 2020-21. This shows a growth of 14.8% over Rs.41,556 billion for 2019-20. The per capita income for 2020-21 has been calculated as Rs.246,414,
showing a growth of 14.6% over Rs. 215,060 during 2019-20. The per capita income in dollars increased by 13.4% from USD 1,361 in 2019-20 to USD 1,543 in 2020-21.