Energy Attacks
The United States has brokered separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and implement a mutual ban on attacks against each other’s energy infrastructure.
These agreements, if successfully enforced, could mark significant progress toward a broader ceasefire, which Washington views as a crucial step toward initiating peace talks and ultimately bringing an end to Russia’s three-year-old war in Ukraine.
Both Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to rely on Washington to oversee and enforce the deals. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy emphasized the importance of accountability, stating that if Russia violated the agreement, Ukraine would present evidence to the U.S. and demand sanctions, military aid, and other punitive measures.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed skepticism about Ukraine’s commitment, insisting that any guarantees must come directly from Washington rather than Kyiv, citing previous failed agreements.
The agreements were reached during negotiations in Saudi Arabia, following diplomatic efforts initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump, who has pledged to swiftly end the war, has shifted Washington’s stance from its previously unwavering support for Ukraine to a more balanced position, taking into account Moscow’s concerns.
As part of the deal with Russia, the U.S. agreed to help reintegrate Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports into global markets, which the Kremlin has stated would require the lifting of certain sanctions. However, this aspect of the agreement remains a contentious issue, as Western allies have imposed sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.
The negotiations followed separate phone calls between Trump and both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy last week. Although Trump proposed a 30-day full ceasefire, Putin rejected the idea, even though Ukraine had previously endorsed it.
Ukraine remains cautious about any potential Russian maneuvers in the Black Sea. Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov warned that if Russian military vessels were to move beyond the eastern part of the Black Sea, Kyiv would view it as a violation of the agreement and a direct threat, in which case Ukraine would exercise its right to self-defense.
Pause on Energy Attacks
Throughout the war, Russia has launched extensive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s power grid, justifying these attacks by arguing that civilian energy infrastructure contributes to Ukraine’s military operations.
In response, Ukraine has recently begun targeting Russian oil and gas facilities, arguing that they provide essential fuel for Russian forces and generate revenue that helps fund the war.
During the early months of the conflict, Russia imposed a naval blockade on Ukraine, a major global grain exporter, raising concerns about worsening global food security. However, by 2023, Ukrainian forces successfully targeted and weakened Russia’s naval presence in the eastern Black Sea, prompting Russia to withdraw many of its warships.
As a result, Ukraine was able to resume maritime trade, bringing its export levels back to near pre-war figures, even after the collapse of a previous UN-brokered Black Sea shipping agreement.
President Trump has continued to push both sides toward a swift resolution to the conflict, fulfilling a key campaign promise. Simultaneously, he is pursuing a closer diplomatic relationship with Moscow, which both U.S. and Russian officials suggest could open new economic opportunities.
However, Ukraine and its European allies remain wary of Trump’s approach. They fear that in his bid to strike a quick deal with Putin, he might agree to terms that compromise their security. Among their biggest concerns is the possibility that Trump could pressure Kyiv to abandon its NATO aspirations and concede full control of four regions that Russia has claimed as its own. Ukrainian officials have firmly rejected this idea, arguing that it would amount to surrendering national sovereignty.
As the situation develops, much will depend on the enforcement of the agreements and whether they pave the way for broader diplomatic engagement or remain limited in scope.
