INTRODUCTION
One of the major geopolitical issues in the Asia Pacific zone is the Taiwan conflict, which has significant repercussions on global and regional security. The Taiwan conflict is a territorial issue between mainland China and Taiwan. China asserts its autonomy over Taiwan and believes in the notion of “Reunification.” However, Taiwan holds the “One China, one Taiwan policy” and has attempted to gain its independent identity over some time. Taiwan is strategically significant as it is economically powerful and technologically excellent, serving as an important player in the intercontinental supply network and trade, etc. Also, Taiwan is geo-strategically important for China as control over Taiwan would ease the Chinese military activities in the South China Sea and facilitate the CCP to affirm its nine-dash line claims. The U.S. has been an important player in the Taiwan issue for several decades for its interests in the region. It upholds the policy of strategic ambiguity for the conflict while maintaining unofficial ties and arms supply to Taiwan.
This paper will analyze the geopolitical puzzle of the Taiwan conflict. It will also provide insights into China’s policy and stance towards the Taiwan issue over the period. Moreover, this study will examine the One China policy and its implications on the regional and international security environment. The shift in the U.S. policy towards Taiwan will be explained in the paper and, finally, heading towards the conclusion.
GEOPOLITICAL PUZZLE: THE TAIWAN CONFLICT
In the seventeenth century, the Qing dynasty grasped complete control of Taiwan for the first time. During the first Sino-Japanese War in 1895, Japan wanted to control Korea. Consequently, this interest led to a war, and Japan took control of the island. However, the U.S. realized Japan’s hegemonic designs during World War II and supported China in defeating Japan. Japan lost the war because of the allied forces and their support to China. Then, China reclaimed its authority over the island, but a war erupted between the nationalist party and the communist party in “mainland China.” The war resulted in the control of mainland China in the hands of Communists, which evolved as the “People’s Republic of China”(PRC); however, the nationalists fled to the island of Formosa. Therefore, China had a historical claim over Taiwan as it had been part of the” People’s Republic of China.” America tried to prevent any conflict between mainland China and Taiwan but failed because of various disagreements and ceasefire violations between the parties. America and Taiwan were also inscribed to the “Mutual Defence Treaty in 1954,” with U.S. troops patrolling on the Taiwan straits to avert any conflict between PRC and ROC.
However, hostilities still prevailed between them in the form of different disagreements. U.S. backed Taiwan in order to undermine the system of Communism in China when World War II ended. China gained sufficient votes in the United Nations in 1971. Consequently, it was able to kick Taiwan out of the UN and became an exclusive representative of China, including Taiwan. As a result, the U.S. maintained diplomatic ties with Taiwan and accepted the “One China policy.” However, many countries established informal relations with Taiwan, and the “Taiwan Relations Act” was passed by America in the year 1979 to portray support for the security of Taiwan. Tensions had been heightened when the U.S. endorsed an arms sale agreement with Taiwan in the 1980’s. Moreover, Taiwan’s President’s visit to America exacerbated the situation. Consequently, China massively invested in technological proficiency and carried out various ballistic missile tests and exercises near Taiwan. On the other hand, the U.S. sent a “carrier task force” to Taiwan to dissuade any threat from China. Both the U.S. and China boosted their defense spending to pursue their interests in the region.
DECODING THE CHINA’S APPROACH TO TAIWAN ISSUE
Since 1949, the “Reunification” of China with Taiwan has been the main strategic aim of the CCP during the period of Mao Ze Dong and China’s belief in the “One China Policy.” Taiwan has been a problem of national identity, sovereignty of the state, national safety and security for China. The CCP tried to liberate Taiwan by using their military forces in 1950, but they were not fortunate because of the presence of U.S. troops in Taiwan. CCP leaders were rational in decision-making as they knew that waging a war against Taiwan would be extremely expensive and, therefore, relied on negotiations.
However, Taiwan belongs to China according to the PRC, while Taiwan is an independent state according to K.M.T. Mao had been patient about the amalgamation of Taiwan with China, and he did not set any time limit for this. Despite the lack of criticality in solving the Taiwan issue, one of Deng Xiaoping’s main strategic goals was the consolidation of Taiwan with China.
However, only the PRC demonstrated the intentions of negotiations for the resolution of the problem, while Taiwan relied on the notion of “three noes, which include no official contact, no negotiations, and no compromise.” Taiwan has fixed specific requirements to be fulfilled before it enters into peace talks and negotiations with China, including the abdication of Communism and following the fundamental principle of Sun Yat-sen, which China has refused. China has formulated the nine-point solution under the framework of “One Country, Two Systems,” which will provide complete autonomy to Taiwan to run its democratic order, political system, and economic system without any kind of interference from the PRC but only when Taiwan will be reunified with mainland China.
“National People’s Congress” of China embraced an entirely new constitution in 1982, which offered for the development of a special administrative region.” One Country, Two Systems” would apply to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macao, and they would be able to keep their capitalist systems intact, but Taiwan was not willing to endorse it. With the rise of the “Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),” several revolutionary movements were initiated in Taiwan, which was targeted by the PRC. China perceived those voices as a threat to its claim regarding Taiwan. In 1995, China suggested a point offer for the serene amalgamation and threatened the use of force against Taiwan and any foreign hurdle in Taiwan and China. In the year 1995, China also carried out a number of military exercises near the waters of Taiwan, and it tried to find a military solution to the conflict. According to China, they will not impede the use of force against any foreign enemy who will undermine the Chinese interests in Taiwan. Moreover, China would use its military if Taiwan declared itself independent formally and in case of any social uprising in Taiwan’s territory.
Consequently, China started investing in military equipment and increased its defense budget. According to a white paper given by the Taiwan affairs office, if America agrees to the “One China Policy,” then it should only preserve the commercial and cultural ties with Taiwan, resist the narrative of “independent Taiwan,” and make efforts for “peaceful reunification.” In addition, Taiwan is included in the “First Chain Islands,” which is strategically important for China’s maritime strategies as well as for American foreign policy. U.S. asserts that by taking control of Taiwan, Chinese military bases would be able to undermine the U.S., while China believes that the PRC has the peaceful purpose of unification. The long-term goal of China is the “reunification” under the One China Policy. Moreover, China also perceives a threat from Taiwan because of its close relations with the U.S. as well as Japan, which will, in turn, jeopardize Chinese influence globally and regionally.
EVOLVING U.S POLICY TOWARD THE CONFLICT
Taiwan has always remained an important entity for attaining the U.S. objectives and interests in East Asia. When the Korean War erupted in 1949, the U.S. halted its diplomatic ties with mainland China. Moreover, the U.S. placed an embargo against China, which further deteriorated their relations. However, the border skirmishes between Taiwan and the Soviet Union and the Soviet annexation of Czechoslovakia had brought a shift in the relations. Later, Nixon signed the “Shanghai communique” between China and America, in which the U.S. reiterated the “One China Policy and peaceful reunification of Taiwan and China.” Under the lens of the One China Policy, America acknowledged China’s sovereignty over Taiwan and disregarded the status of sovereign Taiwan. There was a normalization of ties between China and the U.S. in 1978 because of the escalating Soviet threat. Arms deals were signed between both states. However, the U.S. also supported Taiwan unofficially. Moreover, the U.S. passed the “Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)” for the maintenance of amicable relations with Taiwan and stability in the region, even in the absence of official relations. This act also ensured the cultural, commercial, and other unofficial ties of America with Taiwan, including the supply of defensive weapons to deter the threats that have the capability to undermine the security of Taiwan. As a result, China objected to TRA, and then the U.S. restricted the export of weapons to Taiwan under “the communique of 1982” by giving six assurances for the regulation of smooth relations with China. It was purposely done for the containment of the Soviet threat. The U.S. maintained a double policy in the 1980s and supported both China and Taiwan. Moreover, during the Clinton time period, the U.S. strengthened its relations with Taiwan by emphasizing its membership in various international organizations.
Presently, Taiwan is a member of “WTO, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, and the Asian Development Bank”. However, George Bush exported more than “150 F16 air crafts” to Taiwan to maintain parity against China. Taiwan, with its free market economy, is among the top ten trading partners of America; therefore, it is important for the U.S. Moreover, the U.S. and Taiwan are a part of various joint projects and initiatives relevant to health, education, investment, environmental security, and development. For instance, they are partners in “The Pacific Islands Leadership Partnership 2012 and the International Environmental Partnership Program 2014”. Moreover, Taiwan is economically strong, engendering nearly $786 billion through its exports and investing nearly $137 billion in the United States. For instance, the “semiconductor company of Taiwan” made a considerable investment in the United States, and the U.S. also decided to supply 1.1 billion dollars in weaponry to Taiwan, enraging Beijing. Both conducted the “Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue” in 2021 to strengthen their economic relations. In 2022, President Joe Biden also asserted that the U.S. will back Taiwan in case of any aggressive attack from China. The U.S. also portrayed bipartisan help to Taiwan through “Pro Taiwanese legislature.” Moreover, Beijing responded aggressively and contentiously to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan by conducting several military exercises near the territory of Taiwan and releasing a White paper emphasizing its firm policy on the Taiwan issues. So, the United States’ stance on the issue of Taiwan is ambiguous because it supports China’s legitimacy over Taiwan. However, it is also preserving its unofficial relations with Taiwan as well.
CONCLUSION
Keeping in view the strategic significance of Taiwan, different historical events have led to the current dispute and played a crucial role in influencing the behavior of the states since 1949. Conflicts over the territories and relations across the straits between China and Taiwan are still controversial because of their distinct policies towards the issue. China claims its legitimacy over Taiwan by maintaining the One China policy and suggesting a “One Country, Two Systems” framework; however, Taiwan wants to preserve its autonomy and sovereignty. The intricacy of the conflict among the states gathered international attention. The American policy towards the Taiwan issue has evolved with time with shifting dynamics, interests, and regional concerns of the states. Traditionally. America has upheld the policy of “Strategic ambiguity” by admitting China as the only legitimate authority over Taiwan but maintaining informal ties with Taiwan as well. But in recent times, the U.S. has developed a more assertive approach by giving considerable military support and through defense agreements. This shift in the policy could be for the reorientation of U.S.-China relations.
