The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting on Monday, October 26, to review the country’s key policy rate.
SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed will chair the meeting. Meanwhile, the central bank is scheduled to announce its decision during a press conference at its head office.
The committee’s decision comes amid persistent inflationary concerns and uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook. Therefore, financial markets are closely watching the meeting for signals about Pakistan’s future monetary policy.
Analysts Expect Possible Rate Increase
The MPC maintained the policy rate at 11.5% during its previous meeting on September 14, 2026. However, analysts now expect the central bank to consider tightening monetary policy to contain inflationary risks.
A survey conducted by Topline Securities found that 61% of market participants expect an increase in the policy rate. Of these respondents, 54% anticipate a rise of 50 basis points, while 7% expect a 100-basis-point increase.
In contrast, the remaining 39% expect the central bank to keep the rate unchanged.
Inflation Remains a Major Concern
According to Topline Securities, higher oil prices and external economic pressures could influence the committee’s decision. Brent crude prices have been hovering around $100 per barrel, adding to concerns about future inflation.
The brokerage expects Pakistan’s headline inflation to average between 9% and 9.5% during fiscal year 2026-27. Furthermore, inflation over the next 12 months could remain above 8.5%, exceeding the SBP’s medium-term target of 5% to 7%.
Consequently, investors, businesses, and borrowers are awaiting the central bank’s announcement. The decision could influence borrowing costs, financial markets, and economic activity in the months ahead.
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