he first session of the current assembly was held on 13 August 2018 in which
all the elected members took the parliamentary oath. On 17 August 2018, Imran Khan secured 176 votes and became 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan while his contender Shahbaz Sharif received 96 votes.
If all goes well, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf government will complete its 5-year constitutional term on 16 August 2023. However, there are certain indications that make one think of the possibility of early elections in the country.
Demanding holding of fresh general elections in the country, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) President, Maulana Fazlur Rehman on 18 October (Monday) announced to launch a countrywide agitation against the government.
Announcing the decisions taken during the meeting of party heads of the component parties of the alliance, Rehman told media that a series of protest rallies would be staged across the country from 20 October, against rising inflation and increasing cost of essential items.
He said there will be rallies, wheel-jam strikes, and long marches. “We are not
discussing local bodies polls – the main issue is holding of free and fair general elections in the country,” he demanded on behalf of the alliance.
A day earlier, Maulana had categorically ruled out any possibility of the PPP joining the PDM. “There is no chance of its return,” he said when asked if the PPP could become part of the opposition alliance.
The PPP and Awami National Party (ANP) had parted ways with the PDM in April this year after PML-N’s Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, in his capacity as the alliance’s secretary general, issued them show-cause notices for nominating PPP leader Yousuf Raza Gilani as Opposition Leader in the Senate “in violation of the unanimous decision” of the PDM.
Separately, PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari on 17 October said the PPP would continue its anti-government campaign until Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted. Addressing a rally at Karachi’s Bagh-e-Jinnah in commemoration of those martyred in 2007 in the twin terror attacks in the city’s Karsaz area, Bilawal claimed that the countdown to the government’s end has begun.
PML-N took the lead and recorded its first anti-government protest in Rawalpindi on Wednesday, 20 October. It was organised exclusively by the party of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
Even as the opposition parties share a common goal of ousting the PTI government, the position and strategy of each opposition party seems quite different. Every opposition leader has his own position on the issues of national importance and his own strategy. In some cases, they are not even willing to sit together to iron out a common strategy against the government.
It is clear the political opposition has pulled itself apart. With PML-N, JUI-F and some other opposition parties on one side and PPP along with ANP on the other, the differences between the two blocs of the opposition parties are quite clear. What is more, there is a continuing fight between the two blocs of the opposition as to who the real opposition is. The two blocs are holding their separate public rallies although PTI remains the sole target for both of them. Still the PTI government has over one and a half year more to rule the country but the opposition seems trying to create an atmosphere of elections.
Do they have an inkling of early elections? Or, knowingly there is no early election, are they trying to keep themselves relevant? Only time will tell.
If the latter be the case, the opposition leadership could be out to engage the people well ahead of the elections. Or perhaps their public rallies indicate nothing but their frustration as their every effort to pull the PTI government down so far has failed.
It has not helped that the opposition parties lack a clear or coordinated strategy against the PTI. Each of the parties within the two opposition blocs has its own policies and priorities. Whether they can put aside their differences temporarily and unite on common goals and ideology in order to pool their voters’ support remains an open question.
Knowing what we know of Pakistan’s political culture, is it realistic to expect a cacophony of political players with very different policy goals to pool their resources in order to stop a particular party from gaining power? The answer is a resounding ‘No’.
Given their divergent ideological origins, PML-N and PPP are unlikely to jointly contest PTI in the next general elections. They have long been political rivals and it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which these two parties can choose not to campaign against each other in the next elections.
The prospects of these two heavyweights channelling the anti-PTI sentiment into an electoral alliance are therefore dim. Politics, however, is the art of the possible.
Faced with a powerful common rival, long-standing adversaries PML-N and PPP may yet find reasons to coordinate.
An anti-PTI alliance seems inevitable at this juncture in Pakistan’s history because that is the only way to beat the PTI.
Still, the dominant possibility remains that PTI would contest all the opposition parties separately and the latter may not, even if desirable, achieve the desirable ends.
Holding separate public rallies clearly indicates that they are not interested in an anti-government political alliance and what to talk about an anti-government electoral alliance.
The three major opposition parties – Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) – come from different ideologies and traits, and most importantly, their priorities at this critical phase of the history are different.
Something that is good for PML-N may not benefit PPP politically and what suits PPP may hurt the sentiments of JUI-F supporters.
In particular, Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment rhetoric is so heavy to carry along it has created clear divisions within his own party ranks. The possibility of PML-N being able to convince other opposition parties to join it in the chorus is therefore vanishingly small.
The leadership of the opposition parties seems in disagreement when it comes to the objectives of any anti-government movement. The possible objectives of the
anti-government movement may include a call for fresh elections, driving wedge between the PTI and the establishment, and immediate relief in the cases against top leadership of PPP and PML-N.
The fact remains that PPP finds no reason to go for early elections due to party’s weaker position in all parts of the country except Sindh. Mid-term elections mean PPP will have to leave the Sindh government. With no hope of sweeping success in the next elections, PPP will never resign from the assemblies.
On the other hand, the PPP has been harbouring hopes of forming the next government in the centre. These hopes are hinged in no small way on the PPP’s smart manoeuvring to distance itself from Nawaz Sharif’s hard-line anti-establishment position.
About the only thing the opposition parties fully agree upon is rejection of the accountability process.
Under the circumstances, it is fair to expect the opposition will remain disunited and unable to hammer together an electoral alliance against the PTI in the foreseeable future, strengthening the hand of Prime Minister Khan.
What is more, it is increasingly clear they are aware of this limitation, which is they are preparing for the next elections under the garb of a protest campaign against rising inflation and ‘unprecedented’ hike in the petroleum prices. Although chances of an early general election in the country are dim, they still find it the most suitable way to engage the masses.
