Perhaps the time for political change in Islamabad has arrived—as the PTI led coalition government faces several threats to its continued survival—the signs of instability are fast rising on the political horizon of the country. What are these signs? The disruptive political forces like Tehrik-e-Laibak Pakistan (TLP) are out on the streets challenging the government’s writ. They are generally perceived as a proxy of those non-representative institutions which are never interested in political stability. So TLP’s riots like protests are the first sign that the time for the PTI government to go home has arrived. Second sign is that the main opposition parties have been galvanized and are out in the streets to mobilize public opinion. The opposition parties are not ready to settle down on anything less than fresh, fair and free elections. So in their view Prime Minister Imran Khan should go home, though they have not laid down how he should be ousted from power.
Just like many other political crises like situations which led to regime change in the past, the economic and financial indicators of the economy’s health are not good. The rupee hit a record low of 173.20 in the second week of last month in intra-day trading against the US dollar following media reports that talks with the IMF had failed. It closed at 172.78, below the previous close of 171.18. Pakistan and the IMF held their latest talks in Washington from October 4 to 15 for the release of a
$1bn tranche from a $6bn extended loan facility approved in 2019. The reports claimed that the talks did not lead to a staff-level agreement because of differences over a macroeconomic framework and uncertainty over the country’s economy. The PTI government faced considerable difficulty in convincing the public opinion that the talks have not failed. This situation caused all types of rumors doing the rounds in Islamabad.
Two unrelated developments in the last week of the month seemed to have taken steam out of crisis-bubble. Firstly Saudis extended a financial support package of $4.2 billion to Pakistani government which resulted increasing the value of Pakistani Rupee by Rs 2.27 against the US Dollar in inter-bank market. In the second development, Pakistani finance minister, Shaukat Tareen announced that IMF had agreed to provide a facility of $2.78 billion to Pakistani government to meet its budgetary requirements. This was deemed necessary to combat the financial impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Both these developments are likely to mitigate the political crisis like situation that Imran Khan Government seems to be facing. How long these developments will help PTI Government in control the crisis will depend upon how quickly the government will convert economic and financial easing out facilities to mitigate the effects of inflation and price hike on common man in the society. This will not be an easy task as there are number of pressure groups and elite clubs in the society which are clamoring for more funds, more cash in the face of deteriorating economic conditions of the country.
All this was happening in the backdrop of a crisis like situation over an apparent deadlock over the appointment of new DG ISI. The Prime Minister rejected the announcement made by the media wing of Pakistan Army that Lt General Nadeem Anjum has been appointed new DG ISI and asked the military authorities to initiate a fresh process for the appointment. This involved a summary to be sent from GHQ to the Prime Minister Secretariat, containing three names to be considered for the office of DG ISI. Just like many former Prime Ministers in the post-Zia period, Prime Minister Imran Khan seems to come under the sway of his political desire to see his favorite man in the slot of Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). And just like previous examples, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s wish will be frustrated, if not immediately, then in the due course of time. Till the filing of this story notification for the appointment of Lt General Nadeem Anjum as new DG ISI has not been issued, which gives strength to the rumors that Prime Minister, Imran Khan has refused to give consent to the appointment as announced by ISPR—the media wing of the army. Military experts and analysts (mostly on the condition of anonymity) told The Truth International that Pakistan Army leadership have in the past demonstrated the capacity to keep ISI under its control and not to allow Prime Ministers too much space to independently deal with the ISI. They cite two cases in the recent past, a) when in 1988 Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto appointed a retired Army
general, Shams-ur-Rehman Kullue as DG ISI, b) when Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif appointed his loyalist and army general from non-combat forces, Lt General Zia-ud-din Butt as DG ISI. “In both cases the Prime Minister’s men were sidelined and GHQ boycotted them” said a senior retired military official on the condition of anonymity. In the case of first General Aslam Beg attempted to make Military Intelligence (MI) as the intelligence arm of the GHQ and in the case of second, General Pervez Muahrraf shifted important files and projects away from ISI. ISPR announced the appointment of Lt General Nadeem Anjum as new DG ISI as part of routine postings and transfers in the army. Within 24 hours social media however went into an overdrive hinting that Prime Minister Imran Khan has refused to sign the summary of DG ISI’s appointment. Some of the analysts even predicted that there was a confrontation building up between COAS and Prime Minister. All this reinforced the rumors that change of government was just round the corner.
The appointment of Lt General Nadeem Anjum as DG ISI also confirms that the issue between the military leadership and Prime Minister, Imran Khan has been resolved amicably. There is, however, an interest proviso in the official notification of the New DG ISI, wherein the outgoing DG, Lt General Faiz Hameed has been retained as DG ISI till November 19th November. The political circles have already attached political significance to this proviso—as General Faiz is known to be the favorite of Prime Minister and Lt General Nadeem Anjun is deemed a candidate of GHQ—there was a whispering campaign in Islamabad which warned the Prime Minister not to bypass the GHQ’s nominee otherwise there is going to be trouble. Well, finally he didn’t dare to bypass GHQ’s man, but succeeded in retaining his favorite till November 19th. The closed door nature of Pakistan decision making process will not allow the people to know the significance of November 19th, 2021.
There, however, were important ingredients of a crisis-like situation—similar situations in the past had led to regime change—missing from the scene. For instance non representative institutions like the military, intelligence services or judiciary are not as active as they were at the time of ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power. In fact it would not be an exaggeration to say that military leadership and intelligence services are simply non-active in this crisis. For instance there are no voices coming from the GHQ extending support to the protestors, who are out on the streets shouting slogans against the government and vowing to disrupt civil life. TLP’s riots like protests and disruptive tendencies it has demonstrated are similar in nature and content to the one they launched against the Nawaz Sharif government in 2017. But this time there are no ISPR press release advising the government not to use violence against disruption caused by the protestors. Neither do we see a general in uniform distributing cash among protestors to cause them to disperse. Similarly there is no DG ISPR raising slogans from his official podium to lend support to the cause of TLP protestors.
There are those among the political analysts who are saying the present tensions over the appointment of new DG ISI are stage-managed. Nothing could be further from the truth. The stakes, on both sides, are real and high. The man on the horseback is walking a tightrope. He cannot afford to take anything lightly, or in a carefree manner because he is being watched continuously and persistently both from within the Army rank and file and by the society at large. He has to maintain his and his institution’s images as an omnipotent power center, which in the public imagination is perceived as savior of the nation and influencer of decision-making at the highest level.
And here we have an army which is in love with its image primarily because image—image means how the army leadership is perceived within the rank and file and how it is perceived in the society at large—is a source of its political power. Any move on the part of anyone in the public realm—any verbal statement or any act, policy or decision—that could affect the image of the army as an institution or the image of army top brass could provoke a reaction. And this reaction is not necessarily a controlled, stage-managed well calculated response to any move from outside. This could be an instantaneous reaction of an organization which is more than half million in strength and whose “anger” and “happy” have in the past influenced the course of political developments in the country. The appointment of DG ISI and the way the government has prolonged the process by not completing the process could hardly be described as a situation that is stage managed to divert attention away from government’s other troubles or wrong decisions.
This is a situation which can potentially erode relations of trust between Army top brass and Prime Minister Imran Khan. Here is a patent lesson for the Prime Minister even before this episode comes to an end: Pakistan Army as an institution doesn’t like to be led by a general who is caught hobnobbing with political leadership and is perceived as someone who had been playing second fiddle to the political leadership. Many great military careers in the Pakistan Army have been slaughtered at the altar of political loyalties. Such Army generals are hardly left in a condition capable of serving the political interest of their political masters. Pakistan Army as an institution loves to see Army Generals play politics during their careers—as often most of them do indulge in the politics—but only when their politics serves the institutional interests. It will be wise on the part of Prime Minister Khan to realize that he cannot control the institution through an individual. A little history of Bhutto’s and Nawaz Sharif’s dealing with the institution of the Army will serve him well. Both tried and failed in the attempts to control the army through individuals.
But one factor clearly goes in favor of Prime Minister Imran Khan: It is the hardening of attitude on the part of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. His diatribes against the military leadership or Bajwa-Faiz combine are unique in Pakistan’s political culture and history. Never before has the leader of the main opposition party publicly and persistently condemned military leadership. This has provided Imran Khan and the PTI government with enough space to move and act with impunity—and to take liberty in dealing with military and intelligence services. Imran Khan’s attitude and acts might be hastening the process at the end of which military leadership will make public its lack of tolerance for politicking that might in their perception clash with the smooth functioning of the state institutions.
