Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Establishment have enjoyed an extremely cordial and cozy relationship for a long time, especially the last three years – perhaps the longest civil-military honeymoon in the history of the country. Both sides made no bones about it and kept pushing the ‘one page’ story right through this period. More or less, it was a bump-free ride, an unprecedented achievement in a political system marred with civil-military tensions spread over 70 years. All things ephemeral, however, come to an end one day. Has the day arrived? Has the serpent of mistrust raised its ugly head to sink its fangs into this enviable relationship? Does the love story have a tragic ending? Questions galore!
It is, apparently, one key appointment of the DG of a premier intelligence agency that has brought the present strain in the civil-military relationship to the public attention. It is, however, not just another appointment. The DG is a part of the most powerful ‘troika’, supposed to be ruling the country. The appointment, many argue, will have a decisive impact on the members and future of the troika itself.
It all started, in brief, in the first week of October, when after the PM-COAS meeting, some crucial army postings and transfers were announced by the ISPR. Many of these were considered an internal matter of the institution. But one appointment of the DG ISI that has traditionally been announced, not by the ISPR but by the PM office first, raised antennas. The PM office stayed mum. In fact, the next day there was a meeting of the National Security Committee wherein the ‘former’ DG participated as the ‘present’ DG of the intelligence agency. The two power centers had, to put it mildly, a difference of opinion on the issue; it became common knowledge. It is not important how the matter is resolved, who has budged and who has prevailed. The message of the tiff is that mistrust has crept into the hitherto romance. It has happened in the past. The infamous tweet of the ISPR chief, ‘Rejected’, in April 2017 was later withdrawn but the mistrust between the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the Establishment stayed.
As a recent outcome, a breakthrough seems to be on the cards to end days of rumours and gossiping flooding the social media fueling the impression of a deepening crisis engulfing the country. The unaddressed speculations around a rumoured deadlock between the civil and military leaderships became a source of uncertainty for the stock market over the last few days as well as the political arena.
Sources now insist that there is no deadlock and an amicable resolution is likely soon. Top figures of the civil and military leaderships met late Monday (Oct 11) to find a mutually-agreeable way forward.
The ‘Hybrid System’ is a term coined by the Opposition to define the present political dispensation. Put simply, it is a system of governance wherein the ruling party and the establishment, hand in hand, run the affairs of the state, with the former serving as the junior partner. Imran Khan’s detractors dub him a ‘puppet’, pointing to his presumed role as a junior partner. The ‘difference of opinion’ on the abovementioned appointment hence came as a surprise for many. Why the PM this time decided, unlike many such situations in the last three years, to stay firm on his stance? His stakes seem a little too high this time around, or so he thought at least.
The Establishment, it is believed, has played an important role in Pakistan’s political history. During almost the half of country’s existence, it has ruled Pakistan directly. While during the remaining half it has influenced, many agree, various key internal and external policy decisions. Even many of our popular political leaders, including Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, were introduced and patronized by the Establishment. Both later fell out of the Establishment’s favour though. Even a handpicked Prime Minister Muhammad Khan Junejo had ‘difference of opinion’ with dictator Ziaul Haq, leading to his ouster from the prime minister office. History testifies that the seat of Prime Minister and powers emanating from it, make power sharing difficult and leads to a collision path with the Establishment, especially the popular PMs who, sooner or later, have to face the electorate. Is Imran Khan an exception?
How did Imran Khan become a blue eyed boy of the Establishment? Abdul Sattar Edhi and Hakim Muhammad Saeed, the two most respected philanthropists of the country, trace its origins to the 90s. PTI’s mammoth jalsa at Minare Pakistan in October 2011, political commentators argue, was the first open sign of the Establishment’s support for Mr Khan. Insiders insist that it was the passage of 18th amendment, cleansing the constitution of almost all the amendments introduced by martial law dictators that convinced the Establishment that it had to rid the system of the two major political parties of the country, PML-N and PPP. The rest is history.
It is perhaps the first time in the country’s history that the Establishment has narrowed down its options to literally one party. Otherwise, the powerful quarters always had at least two options, pitting them against each other when need arose. The politics of 90s was a classic example when Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto were encouraged to dislodge each other from power twice. The Charter of Democracy signed by Benazir and Sharif in 2006 vowed not to be part of any conspiracy to oust each other’s government.
With Imran Khan coming into power, the stage was set to further decimate the opposition through NAB and other government agencies. The NAB cases, jails and bails kept the opposition busy for three years. The opposition was in disarray during the Imran rule, to say the least. Meanwhile, the dissenting voices in the judiciary, media, Election Commission, etc were managed by the ‘same page’ players. It was believed that the ‘miscreants’ had been harnessed and the next couple of elections can return ‘favourable’ results, and there was no need for any other political option. This ‘impeccable’ plan seems to have countered roadblocks.
Inflation has proven to be the decisive factor, creating a general wave of dissatisfaction with the PTI government. Prices of essential commodities, food items, fuel, electricity, LNG, and medicines have left the masses gasping for breath. The government’s indecision on going to the IMF is responsible for our various financial ills, many believe. Exporting wheat and sugar and then importing it at higher rates is considered scandalous by many. There is bad governance and back to back scandals, wheat, sugar, LNG, medicines, Rawalpindi Ring Road, etc, to name a few.
Nawaz Sharif, an astute politician that he is, decided to fully exploit this wave of anger. Perhaps the bravest and most risky decision of his political career, he tried to divert the public anger towards the ‘selectors’. Last year in the PDM Gujranwala jalsa, he named the Chief and that proved to be the beginning of a regular onslaught against the ‘Chief Selector’. At least among
his support base, Sharif succeeded in putting the blame of misgovernance and inflation on Imran’s backers. It all was viewed with great concern in Rawalpindi. Pakistan under Imran has gone paupers and the colossal failure is being attributed to the signatories of the same page. Also, looking at the geo political situation, dollars aren’t coming any time soon. Is it time to go back to the drawing board? It seems the Establishment has no plan B – confusion worse confounded.
It is against this background that the present state of Imran-Establishment relations can be understood. True, Mr Khan came to power with the blessings of powers-that-be. But he is not Shaukat Aziz. He certainly is, at present, one of the two most popular political leaders of the country. As a major political player, he is trying to control the political chess board by moving his pieces. Nawaz Sharif and his political heir Maryam seem to know why Mr Khan was keen on a certain appointment. Hence, Maryam Nawaz moved the Islamabad High Court, naming the un-namable, to make Mr Khan’s choice even more controversial.
Who is going to be the next COAS, a position falling vacant in November 2022? Will the incumbent COAS be interested in another extension? Who Imran Khan wants to head the most powerful institution in the country when the next general election approaches? These are tricky questions. And possibly the three most powerful people in the land have a ‘difference of opinion’ on these questions. The Khan-Establishment relations, to conclude, have well past their zenith.
