Pakistan could move towards a major administrative restructuring after the 2029 general elections, with a proposal to create 12 provinces under consideration. However, sources familiar with the discussions suggest that constitutional amendments could come next year, while actual implementation would follow the next electoral exercise.
The proposed plan would increase Pakistan’s existing four provinces to 12. Nevertheless, several financial, constitutional and administrative challenges could complicate the process, particularly concerning resource distribution, water sharing and outstanding financial liabilities.
How Would Pakistan’s 12-Province Plan Reshape the Country?
Under the proposal, Punjab could be divided into four separate provinces. Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan could each become three provinces.
Sindh, on the other hand, could be divided into two administrative units. Consequently, the proposed restructuring would bring the country’s total number of provinces to 12.
Although constitutional legislation could be considered next year, the existing provincial governments and assemblies would continue functioning until the 2029 general elections. Therefore, the proposed administrative changes would take effect after the electoral process.
However, implementing the plan would require extensive consultations and agreement on several sensitive constitutional and financial matters.
NFC Award Distribution Emerges as Major Challenge
The distribution of financial resources under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award represents one of the biggest obstacles to creating 12 provinces.
Currently, the federal divisible pool allocates the provincial share among Pakistan’s four provinces. The existing formula considers several factors, including population, poverty, backwardness and revenue generation.
However, adding eight provinces would raise questions about how the existing provincial allocation should be divided among 12 administrative units.
Policymakers would need to determine whether the current distribution formula could accommodate the new provinces. Alternatively, the government might need to introduce a revised mechanism to address their financial requirements.
Therefore, reaching an agreement on resource distribution would remain essential before implementing the proposed restructuring.
Water Distribution Could Trigger Another Dispute
Water sharing presents another significant challenge for the proposed provincial restructuring. Pakistan currently regulates water distribution through the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord.
The agreement determines the existing provinces’ shares in the Indus River system. However, creating eight additional provinces would require a clear mechanism for distributing those allocations among the new administrative units.
This issue could become particularly sensitive in areas where agriculture, irrigation requirements and water availability already create disagreements.
Authorities would need to decide whether existing provincial allocations should remain unchanged and subsequently pass to successor provinces. Alternatively, they might consider revising the broader water-sharing arrangements.
Without a mutually acceptable framework, water distribution could complicate the transition towards the proposed 12-province structure.
Who Would Take Responsibility for Existing Financial Liabilities?
The settlement of financial liabilities between the federal government and existing provincial governments presents a third major challenge.
Currently, the federation and provinces have outstanding financial claims, transfers, loans and other fiscal obligations. Therefore, restructuring would require a transparent mechanism to distribute these responsibilities among the proposed provinces.
Authorities would need to determine which successor provinces would assume responsibility for existing provincial debts. They would also have to decide how federal loans and other financial obligations should be apportioned.
Furthermore, outstanding payments owed by the federal government to provincial administrations would require appropriate transfers to their successor units.
This process would involve a detailed assessment of each existing province’s financial position. It would also require examining the assets, liabilities and outstanding dues of the proposed successor provinces.
Such an exercise could help prevent disputes over financial entitlements during the transition.
Constitutional Consultations Remain Crucial Before Implementation
The proposed creation of 12 provinces would involve more than simply redrawing administrative boundaries. Instead, it would require agreements on constitutional arrangements, financial rights and the distribution of essential resources.
Although constitutional legislation could move forward next year, the proposed implementation timeline points towards the period after the 2029 general elections.
Meanwhile, the existing provincial governments and assemblies would continue their responsibilities until the next electoral exercise.
Ultimately, the federal government, provincial administrations and other stakeholders would need to resolve the NFC Award, water-sharing arrangements and financial liabilities. These decisions could determine whether Pakistan’s proposed 12-province restructuring moves from discussion towards implementation.
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