Opec+ agreed on Sunday to raise its oil output target by 188,000 barrels per day for June. This marks the third straight monthly increase. However, the decision carries more symbolic weight than immediate impact, as ongoing conflict continues to disrupt supply routes. The adjustment mirrors May’s increase, though it excludes the United Arab Emirates, which formally exited the group on May 1.
Even so, the move reflects a calculated message. On one hand, the alliance wants to show readiness to boost supply when conditions improve. On the other, it aims to reassure markets that its broader strategy remains intact despite internal changes. Analysts say the group is maintaining a business-as-usual stance to project stability during uncertain times.
Additionally, experts say that this move conveys two messages – continuity in the wake of the UAE’s withdrawal and management of the future course of the market. Although production quotas are growing in paper, actual production is being hampered by constant geopolitical tensions.
Limits in supplies prevail over production objectives
This increase will not have an effect in the short term because of the continued closure of the straits of Hormuz, which has greatly restricted exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait. In other words, higher quotas have led to no higher volumes shipped.
Thus, although Saudi Arabia’s ceiling is going to rise to more than 10 million barrels per day in June, the country will still be producing much less than planned. Besides, total OPEC+ production has been decreasing in March.
Even in case all the shipping routes were restored, experts suggest that it would take some time for the market to return to normal levels of supply. In the meantime, the cost of oil climbed above $125 per barrel.
