ISLAMABAD: As the effects of Middle East tensions are not yet visible, it is anticipated that the global market surge may cause an increase of approximately Rs2.50 and Rs8.50 in petrol and high-speed diesel prices per liter, respectively, starting from Monday (April 15) for the upcoming two weeks. This prediction comes despite a decrease in import premium and a slightly enhanced exchange rate.
According to reliable sources, the international market has seen an increase of approximately $4 and $4.50 per barrel in petrol and HSD prices, respectively, over the past two weeks. This may lead to a potential rise in petrol prices by Rs2.50 to Rs2.80 per litre, and an increase in HSD prices by Rs8 to Rs8.50 per litre, as per final calculations.
Intriguingly, the import premium for petrol has significantly decreased by approximately 21% to $10.7 per barrel within the past two weeks, compared to $13.50 during the final days of March.
Additionally, the Indian Rupee has strengthened by around 40 paisa against the US Dollar, now standing at Rs278.20. As a result, it is estimated that the petrol price may increase by about Rs2.80 per litre from its current rate of Rs289.41.
Contrastingly, the HSD price increased in the global market, while the import premium for the benchmark Pakistan State Oil, set at $6.50 per barrel, remained constant.
The estimated HSD rate has been increased by approximately Rs8 to Rs8.50 per liter, pending final exchange rate adjustments in pricing, from the current rate of Rs282.24 per liter at the depot level. According to officials, the petrol price has risen by around $4 per barrel to $98.5 last week, while the HSD price has increased by $4.50 per barrel to $102.9.
Approximately two weeks ago, the government implemented a price hike of Rs9.66 per litre for petrol and a decrease of Rs3.32 per litre for high-speed diesel (HSD) effective until April 15. The administration has now reached the maximum legal limit of Rs60 per litre levy on both petrol and HSD.
As per the obligations with the International Monetary Fund, the administration established a budget goal to accumulate Rs869 billion as petroleum tax on petroleum products during the current fiscal year. In the first half (July-December) of the fiscal, they have already collected approximately Rs475 billion.
The government is projected to gather around Rs970 billion by the end of the year, even though the revised target was set at Rs920 billion by the end of June. Presently, the government imposes a tax of about Rs82 per litre on both petrol and HSD.
