Lahore continues to struggle with dangerous air pollution, with fine particulate matter reaching alarming levels. A new assessment by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative (PAQI) has highlighted the scale of the problem.
The report found that Lahore’s average PM2.5 concentration reached 126 micrograms per cubic metre. This was eight times the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) recommended guideline value. Meanwhile, satellite data identified thousands of possible crop-residue fires across Punjab.
The findings also raise questions about claims linking Diwali fireworks in India directly to Lahore’s worsening smog. Although winds carried air from Indian territory into Pakistan, the assessment found insufficient evidence to blame fireworks for the city’s pollution.
Punjab Records More Than 16,700 Possible Crop Fires
According to the PAQI assessment, satellite instruments detected 18,825 fires across Punjab between October 1 and November 9. Around 89 percent were classified as likely crop-residue burning incidents.
Of these, 16,714 detections involved suspected crop-residue fires. The highest daily count occurred on November 1, when satellites recorded 1,102 incidents.
The overall number remained almost unchanged compared with the corresponding period last year. However, suspected crop-residue fires were eight percent above the 2020–2025 average.
Sheikhupura recorded the highest number of detections, with 2,559 incidents. Jhang followed with 2,192, while Okara recorded 2,062.
Hafizabad reported 1,893 detections, followed by Gujranwala with 1,417. Together, these five districts accounted for 54 percent of all recorded fires.
Lahore’s PM2.5 Levels Remain Far Above Safety Guidelines
Lahore recorded an average PM2.5 concentration of 126 micrograms per cubic metre during the assessment period. This exceeded the 24-hour National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) on all 40 days with valid readings.
Nevertheless, the average represented an 11 percent decline compared with the same period in 2025.
The report also identified a connection between fires occurring upwind and rising pollution levels in major Punjab cities. When air trajectories passed over areas experiencing fires, Lahore’s average PM2.5 concentration reached 175 micrograms per cubic metre.
On other days, the average stood at 93 micrograms. Similar patterns appeared in other cities.
Multan recorded an average of 203 micrograms on days influenced by fires, compared with 88 micrograms on other days. Meanwhile, Bahawalpur recorded 125 micrograms against 65 micrograms.
However, PAQI cautioned against treating this relationship as proof of the exact contribution from crop burning. Stagnant weather and limited atmospheric dispersion also trap pollutants, worsening urban air quality.
Did Diwali Fireworks in India Make Lahore’s Smog Worse?
The assessment also investigated whether Diwali fireworks in India contributed to Lahore’s deteriorating air quality. The celebrations took place on November 8.
According to the report, easterly winds carried air from Indian territory towards Pakistan overnight. Researchers examined 48 back trajectories reaching Lahore, Kasur and Sialkot between 9pm November 8 and midnight November 10.
Of these, 45 had crossed Indian territory during the previous 12 hours. Their most frequent routes passed near Tarn Taran, Amritsar and Jammu.
Despite these wind patterns, the report found insufficient evidence linking Lahore’s post-Diwali pollution directly to fireworks.
Lahore’s average PM2.5 concentration reached 234 micrograms between 6pm November 8 and 1am November 10. This represented a 10 percent increase over the same hours during the previous seven days.
However, neighbouring cities recorded different increases:
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Kasur: 27 percent increase.
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Sialkot: 33 percent increase.
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Narowal: 2 percent decline.
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Faisalabad: 40 percent increase.
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Multan: 40 percent increase.
Interestingly, Faisalabad and Multan recorded larger increases despite their greater distance from the international border. Faisalabad lies approximately 130 kilometres away, while Multan sits around 180 kilometres away.
The four border cities recorded an average increase of 36 micrograms per cubic metre. In comparison, Faisalabad and Multan experienced an average increase of 85 micrograms.
The report noted that pollution arriving from across the border should affect border areas more strongly. However, the recorded pattern did not support this explanation.
Sialkot remained an exception, recording a 37 percent increase during the night after Diwali. Air trajectories passing over Jammu influenced the city during this period.
Delhi’s Pollution Did Not Reach Lahore
The assessment also examined whether emissions from New Delhi contributed to Lahore’s pollution. However, researchers found that Delhi’s emissions had not reached Lahore during the analysed period.
Air from Delhi entered Pakistan near Rahim Yar Khan and Bahawalpur after 3am on November 10. Its closest approach to Lahore remained approximately 266 kilometres away.
Furthermore, researchers highlighted limitations in identifying the precise sources of pollution. Distinguishing fireworks emissions from agricultural smoke requires chemical analysis of particulate matter.
Such testing examines elements including potassium, strontium and barium. However, Pakistani monitoring stations did not measure these elements.
Lahore Records Improvement After Anti-Smog Operations
Meanwhile, Lahore experienced an improvement in air quality on Monday following emergency mitigation and enforcement operations.
The Punjab Environment Protection and Climate Change Department (EPCCD) reported a significant decline in the city’s average Air Quality Index (AQI).
The department’s monitoring network recorded an AQI of 489 at 9am. By 3pm, the reading had dropped to 232, marking a reduction of 257 points or approximately 53 percent.
All 11 monitoring stations recorded improvements during this period.
Egerton Road showed the biggest decline, with its AQI falling from 500 to 167. Similarly, GT Road recorded a reduction from 500 to 172.
DHA Phase 6, Shahdara, Barki Road and Punjab University also reported improvements. Other locations included Wagah Border, Gulberg III, Kahna Nau, Safari Park and Multan Road.
Authorities deployed multiple anti-smog guns along busy roads and pollution hotspots. Additionally, mist-sprinkling operations covered approximately 640 kilometres of designated routes.
Punjab Intensifies Anti-Smog Enforcement
Earlier, the provincial government had warned about worsening air quality in Lahore, Kasur and adjoining border districts. The warning covered November 9 and 10.
Officials identified several potential contributors, including Diwali fireworks, agricultural residue burning in Indian Punjab and easterly winds. Stagnant atmospheric conditions also increased concerns.
A special assessment issued on November 8 identified 2,347 crop-residue burning incidents in Indian Punjab through November 4.
Of these, 1,081 incidents occurred across Tarn Taran, Ferozepur and Amritsar. The assessment also warned that Diwali fireworks smoke could reach Lahore within five to 13 hours.
EPCCD Secretary Silwat Saeed said the department was addressing pollution through coordinated enforcement and environmental monitoring. She highlighted targeted field operations and real-time pollution tracking.
The department was also using Punjab Climate Watch data to identify pollution hotspots. This information helped operational teams prioritise areas requiring immediate intervention.
Environment Protection Agency (EPA) Director General Abdullah Nayyar Sheikh said authorities had adopted a zero-tolerance approach towards major pollution sources.
He explained that Quick Response Units were responding to satellite-detected fire anomalies and crop-burning reports. Field teams were being dispatched to extinguish fires and take action against those responsible.
Furthermore, officials intensified inspections of factories, brick kilns and other emission-generating facilities. Anti-smog gun operations were also continuing at full capacity across Lahore.
Sheikh described improvements at all 11 monitoring stations as encouraging. However, he stressed that surveillance, enforcement and mitigation activities would continue.
Meanwhile, the PAQI report highlighted another concern involving upcoming days. It identified high numbers of fires in areas upwind of Lahore on November 10, 11 and 12.
Forecast estimates indicated 642 fires on November 10, 668 on November 11 and 617 on November 12.
Rain Forecast Across Punjab as Smog Concerns Continue
Separately, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) forecast rainfall across several Punjab districts over the following two days.
According to its Tuesday alert, rain could help reduce smog levels. However, the weather change may also intensify cold conditions across the province.
Lahore, Kasur, Sialkot, Narowal, Gujrat and Gujranwala are among the districts expected to receive rainfall. Hafizabad, Wazirabad and Sheikhupura are also included in the forecast.
Additionally, the authority predicted rain in Rawalpindi, Mianwali, Jhelum and Mandi Bahauddin. Attock, Chakwal, Khushab, Bhakkar, Sargodha and Murree could also experience rainfall.
Meanwhile, Dera Ghazi Khan, Layyah, Bhakkar and Multan may experience strong winds and thunderstorms. The forecast also includes isolated hailstorms in some areas.
The PDMA directed commissioners and deputy commissioners across Punjab to remain alert. It also advised residents to avoid unnecessary travel during storms.
Furthermore, citizens should seek shelter in safe locations during severe weather. The authority warned against remaining in open areas during thunderstorms and lightning.
As Lahore continues battling hazardous pollution, the latest findings highlight several contributing factors. Crop-residue burning, weather conditions and local emissions remain important concerns. Meanwhile, authorities face continued pressure to sustain enforcement and improve air quality across Punjab.
