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In Russia’s Caucasus, tentative border realignment pushes republics closer to instability

Last month, the independent news outlet Fortanga reported that North Ossetia-Alania was planning to redraw its border with Ingushetia, aiming to annex parts of Ingushetia’s Dzheyrakhsky district, particularly the dolomite-rich Stolovaya mountain area.

This revelation sparked widespread outrage in Ingushetia, with residents flooding messaging apps like WhatsApp to voice their dissent and organize potential protests.

Isabella Evloeva, Fortanga’s founder, noted, “There was a huge public outcry… everyone was talking about it, except perhaps the infants and the mute.”

While initial panic ensued, reactions shifted somewhat when local officials publicly declared the border changes “unacceptable.”

Many in Ingushetia remain wary, recalling the harsh repression faced during protests against a similar border deal with Chechnya in 2018 and 2019, which weakened civil society and stifled open expression.

The prospect of territory being ceded to North Ossetia is especially painful for Ingush residents, as historical grievances linger from the 1944 deportation of Chechen and Ingush populations under Soviet orders, resulting in significant loss of life and territory.

In 1992, a brief war erupted between the two republics over the Prigorodny district, leading to significant casualties and the expulsion of many Ingush.

Analysts warn that the proposed border changes could incite unrest and ethnic violence, recalling past tensions exacerbated by land swaps sanctioned by Moscow, like the controversial deal with Chechnya.

Some fear the Kremlin may use unresolved border issues as leverage to destabilize the region. “The possibility of large protests is very high… the risk of violent instability is real,” noted North Caucasus analyst Harold Chambers, underscoring the potential for heightened conflict if these territorial changes proceed.

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