On May 14, the Turkish presidential election resulted in a runoff vote as neither candidate, President Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, won an outright majority. Erdogan led in the first round but failed to extend his rule of the NATO-member country, which has already spanned two decades.
The election held on May 14 was seen as a verdict on Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian path. However, neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu managed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a second round, which is scheduled to take place on May 28.
The upcoming presidential vote in Turkey is not just about deciding who will lead the country, but it will also determine Turkey’s direction in terms of secularism and democracy. Additionally, the election will decide how Turkey plans to handle its severe cost of living crisis, as well as manage its key relationships with Russia, the Middle East, and the West.
Kilicdaroglu, who claimed victory in the runoff, urged his supporters to remain patient while accusing Erdogan’s party of meddling with the counting and reporting of election results.
Despite pre-election polls predicting otherwise, Erdogan performed better than expected and appeared confident and combative as he addressed his supporters.
Says Erdogan.
“We are currently leading our closest rival by 2.6 million votes, and we anticipate this margin to grow further once the official results are released,”
State-owned news agency Anadolu reported that Erdogan was leading with 49.39% of votes and Kilicdaroglu had 44.92%, with nearly 97% of ballot boxes counted. Turkey’s High Election Board announced Erdogan’s lead at 49.49%, with 91.93% of ballot boxes counted.
Party supporters of Erdogan gathered at the headquarters in Ankara in thousands, playing party songs through loudspeakers and waving flags, with some dancing in the street.
Yalcin Yildrim, a 39-year-old textile factory owner, stated that while they know it is not yet a celebration, they hope to celebrate Erdogan’s victory soon. Yildrim added that Erdogan is the best leader their country has had, and they love him.
ERDOGAN HAS EDGE
The election results highlighted the deep polarization in Turkey, as the country stands at a political crossroads. The outcome of the vote is expected to grant Erdogan’s ruling alliance a parliamentary majority, which could potentially give him an advantage in the runoff.
According to opinion polls prior to the election, the race was expected to be very close, with Kilicdaroglu, who leads a six-party alliance, having a slight lead. Two polls conducted on Friday showed him exceeding the 50% threshold.
With a population of 85 million people and already grappling with high inflation, Turkey now confronts a period of two weeks of uncertainty that could unsettle markets. Analysts predict that the local currency and stock market may experience fluctuations during this time.
Hakan Akbas, the managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, a consultancy, stated that the next two weeks could potentially be the longest in Turkey’s history, with many events unfolding. Akbas further commented that he anticipates a substantial crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and significant fluctuations in the currency.
Furthermore, Akbas stated that Erdogan could potentially have an edge in a second vote, as his alliance performed significantly better than the opposition’s alliance.
Analysts said that Sinan Ogan, a third nationalist presidential candidate, obtained 5.3% of the vote, and could potentially play a decisive role in the runoff by endorsing one of the remaining candidates. Thus, he may act as a “kingmaker” in determining the outcome of the election.
According to the opposition, Erdogan’s party was causing a delay in the release of full results by filing objections, while authorities were publishing results in a manner that favored Erdogan’s vote count.
Earlier, Kilicdaroglu had made an appearance and accused Erdogan’s party of “destroying the will of Turkey” by objecting to the counts of over 1,000 ballot boxes. Kilicdaroglu stated that objections could not prevent the inevitable outcome, and he vowed to prevent such actions from becoming a done deal.
As the votes were being counted, the mood at the opposition party’s headquarters – where Kilicdaroglu had anticipated
a victory – remained subdued. Kilicdaroglu’s supporters waved flags of Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and played drums.
PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY
The People’s Alliance, comprising Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AKP, the nationalist MHP, and other parties, performed better than expected in the parliamentary vote and were on track to win a majority. Kilicdaroglu has promised to revive democracy, pursue orthodox economic policies, restore autonomy to institutions that lost it under Erdogan’s rule, and rebuild ties with the West. If the opposition wins, thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released. However, critics fear that Erdogan will continue to govern in an increasingly authoritarian manner if he secures another term. Erdogan, who has won a dozen elections in the past, claims to respect democracy.
Readmore: Erdogan leads with 54% votes in early results for president of Turkiye polling
