India is likely to experience below-average monsoon rainfall in July after recording its fifth-driest June since records began in 1901. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised concerns about agricultural production and broader economic growth over below-average monsoon in July.
The southwest monsoon provides nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, replenishing reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater that are vital to the country’s nearly **$4 trillion economy**. With almost half of India’s farmland dependent on rainfall rather than irrigation, the monsoon is critical for agricultural output and rural livelihoods.
IMD Director-General **Mrutyunjay Mohapatra** said July rainfall is expected to remain below **94 percent of the long-period average (LPA)**.
July is the most important month of the four-month monsoon season, accounting for the largest share of seasonal rainfall. It is also the primary sowing period for key summer crops, including rice, cotton, corn, and soybeans.
Although the IMD had forecast June rainfall at below **92 percent of the long-period average**, the country ultimately received rainfall **39.8 percent below normal**, making it the **fifth-driest June** in more than a century of record-keeping.
According to Mohapatra, the developing **El Niño** weather pattern contributed to the weak June monsoon and is expected to strengthen in the coming months, potentially suppressing rainfall further.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The pattern alters global weather systems and is often associated with reduced monsoon rainfall across parts of South Asia.
Historically, many El Niño years have brought below-average rainfall to India, with some resulting in severe droughts, crop failures, and restrictions on agricultural exports.
Despite the weak start to the season, market participants remain hopeful that improved rainfall in the coming days could help restore soil moisture and allow farmers to accelerate planting.
“If rainfall picks up over the next few days, as forecast by the weather department, there will be enough soil moisture for farmers to begin sowing summer crops,” a Mumbai-based commodities trader said.
A delayed onset of the monsoon has already slowed the planting of major summer crops, including rice, cotton, corn, and soybeans, increasing uncertainty over this year’s agricultural production.
