Europe is preparing for its coldest winter spell so far, coinciding with the expiration of the Russian gas transit agreement via Ukraine to Central Europe on January 1, 2025.
Plunging Temperatures and Increased Gas Demand
Temperatures across the UK, France, and Germany are forecast to drop sharply by the end of the week, leading to a spike in demand for natural gas to meet heating and electricity needs.
This cold snap comes at a time when Europe is depleting its natural gas reserves at the fastest rate in years. As of December 28, EU gas storage facilities were filled to 73.5% capacity on average, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. The UK, which is no longer part of the EU, reported its storage sites at 56.5% full.
Weather Warnings in Key Countries
The UK Met Office has issued yellow and amber alerts for snow, ice, and rain this week. On Sunday, it warned of an “unsettled week ahead with a series of low-pressure systems moving across the country,” bringing risks of heavy rain, strong winds, and snow.
Germany’s national weather service, DWD, has also issued warnings for ice and frost toward the end of the week. Forecasts indicate temperatures in major European cities, including London, Berlin, and Paris, will fall below freezing and below the 30-year seasonal average, as reported by Bloomberg.
Gas Transit Deal in Jeopardy
The anticipated cold snap coincides with the December 31 expiration of the Russian gas transit deal via Ukraine, which supplies gas to Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
Ukraine has declined to extend the agreement, and Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that the likelihood of a new deal is low.
The approaching deadline has heightened tensions in the region. Slovakia has threatened to halt electricity exports to Ukraine in response to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s firm stance against renewing the transit agreement with Russia’s Gazprom.
As Europe braces for freezing temperatures and uncertainties in energy supply, the interplay of geopolitical tensions and winter demand could place significant pressure on the continent’s energy infrastructure.
