Pakistan’s power purchase price could rise to Rs27.309 per unit in 2027, according to projections submitted by the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee (CPPA-G). The agency estimates total electricity procurement costs of Rs3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario. The projections will help determine the reference costs for revised electricity tariffs from January 1, 2027.
Nepra Schedules Public Hearing for November 3
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has scheduled a public hearing on the proposed power purchase price for November 3, 2026, at 2pm.
The hearing will take place at Nepra Tower, with online participation available through Zoom. Interested parties can submit comments and objections before regulators finalise the projections.
The review forms part of the tariff rebasing process for power distribution companies operating outside K-Electric’s network.
Power Purchase Price Varies Across Scenarios
CPPA-G has presented six scenarios based on different assumptions about electricity demand, fuel costs and exchange rates.
Under the base-case scenario, the projected price stands at Rs27.309 per unit. The ideal scenario estimates Rs25.883 per unit, while the second-worst-case scenario puts the price at Rs29.255 per unit.
The agency has assumed annual electricity demand growth of 2.6%, an exchange rate of Rs279 against the US dollar and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
Under the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee weakens to Rs290 per dollar. These assumptions push the projected purchase price to Rs28.835 and Rs29.255 per unit.
Capacity Payments Make Up the Largest Cost
Capacity charges account for the biggest share of projected electricity procurement costs. CPPA-G estimates these charges at Rs1.91 trillion, equivalent to Rs14.717 per unit.
Fuel expenses are projected at Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit. Meanwhile, variable operations and maintenance costs are estimated at Rs70.58 billion.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges together account for another Rs248.30 billion, equivalent to Rs1.909 per unit.
These figures highlight the continued impact of capacity payments on Pakistan’s electricity costs. Fuel prices and currency movements could also influence the final calculation.
Final Electricity Tariffs Remain Subject to Review
The projected power purchase price is not the final retail tariff consumers will pay. Nepra’s determination, along with taxes, duties, subsidies and other tariff components, will influence the final rates.
The November hearing will allow stakeholders to challenge the assumptions and present alternative views. Regulators will then assess the projections before determining the reference costs for 2027.
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