Tensions to escalate
The decision by the Democrat camp to withdraw support from the incumbent President Joe Biden and literally leaving the field for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, has in its store major changes for the world peace as it transits into the calendar year 2025. With the two wars in the Middle East raging at high and low pace namely; containment of the Palestinian resistance and containment of Iran, the two agendas are likely to escalate in the Oval Office in the post November 4, 2024 scenario.
The reason, why the Republicans are likely to make a big difference rest in the fact that their last four years in the office between 2016-2020 were wrought with developments, which could have escalated into war or worse, if the Democrats interlude courtesy 2020 elections had not happened.
The Trump administration took no time in escalating the formation of the Abraham Accord Middle East in 2016-17, which was infact the erasing the Palestinian state in whichever form it existed till then. On the other front, the JCPOA, a painstakingly made accord by the Rouhani reformist administration and Democrat Obama administration was thrown in the dustbin without any qualms by the Trump administration.
If the 2020 US elections had brought back the Republicans, a war with Iran and a decisive action against Palestinian resistance was a foregone conclusion. However, the electoral swing in United States saved the world a big conflict for at least four years on. The outbreak of Corona was another contributing factor for the United States to look inward, instead of outwards.
The events on October 7, 2023 did escalate the situation to the point where United States seems to have decided to plunge into the war. However, on ground it did not went beyond intelligence gathering along the Mediterranean coats onboard Northrop Global Hawk pilotless drone. Despite the fact that the US administrations cannot afford to look the other way with the Jewish Lobby, under Biden, it still tried to create a semblance of balancing things out for at least leaving some good will for the United States in the international arena.
During the high point of Iran and Israel escalation, there were talks of US talking directly to Iran to trade in cancellation of strike on Israel in exchange for forcing Israel to cease hostilities in Gaza. That was all indicative of the Biden administration will to take along all the stakeholders.
However, the scenario changed gradually in May 2024. The untimely death of the incumbent President Raeesi in a helicopter crash and the snap presidential elections in June end brought in a surprise winner for the Iranians. President Massoud ascendency to the post as a reformist minded individual who had the support of even the disgruntled sections of the Iranian society and his acceptance by what we can term as Iranian establishment, meant that Iranian leadership is rebranding itself in a way to be viewed as a state which values progress as much as its ideological lines. In a way Iranians are trying to go the Chinese Communist Party change of clothing, where a Marxist state emerges as a trading partner to be taken seriously. The Presidential investiture ceremony has been generally a private affair both at the Leadership office as well as in the parliament. However, this time, foreign guests are likely to stream in to Tehran.
A peek into the local Iranian Persian speaking media reveals that the society at large is pinning too many hopes on the president elect, more than even he had contemplated in the first place. The very reason that the reformist administration is being given an image of not a faction administration but belonging to all the Iranians, even those who are against the system altogether.
In the backdrop of these developments, the JCPOA revival is going to be the major task, as it would bring Iran back into the world trade regime, payment systems as well the international community. If the Iranian side initiative is to be gauged, the reformist president with support from Khamenei is likely to go full throttle for Iranian reentry into the trade arena, as resumption of trade and removal of sanctions will automatically translate into the economic growth and remove the causes of discontent in the Iranian society and economy.
Given the fact that there is no contender threatening enough among the Democrat cadre to challenge Trump likely reelection as the President of the United States, the future scenario might be a liability than an asset for the Reform group in Iran domestically.
The JCPOA as finalized by the Rouhani-Obama admins was slaughtered by the Republicans in 2016. Any revival on the basis of common wisdom demands that both side in Tehran and in Washington as in place to practically revive that. Despite that fact that Biden will be an effective president till January 19, 2025, the Democrat administration will not be interested to finalize anything about whose continuity it is not sure itself. If they are sure that they can field in a strong candidate, then the scenario can be different.
As things stand, the next few months in the United States election battle will determine, how the global scenario will rest in the post January 20, 2025 period. If the Republicans gather much pace till the cut off time, it means that the incumbent Democrats will not set the ball rolling for the revival of JCPOA.
While the Republicans will not effective till January 20, 2025, the time of US Presidential investiture, the general sentiment will undoubtedly guide about the turn of events. A Republican ascendency means; Israel will be emboldened enough to actually uproot in physical sense the Palestinian state as visualized in Oslo 1993 accord. This means an escalation in the current war situation in Middle East.
For Iran, the responses are predictable. JCPOA might actually be put to rest and buried. The Israeli connection with the Republican administration, will mean that Israel will be able to market their idea successfully that the regime change in Tehran is the only option to get the lasting peace, from their definition in the Middle East. The likely scenarios can be crippling sanctions for Iran under the new reformist President; much like the Rouhani closing years. The sanctions can actually undo much of the goodwill generated within Iran for the Nezam. The republicans would certainly try to bring down the Nezam through economic and political unrest in Iran.
Conclusively, much of the scenario is still fluid with every possibility on ground. However, one thing is quite clear. The number of destabilizing factors will certainly escalate if the Republican victory is in the sight. It is going to be tough fight for Hamas and Iran to cross the proverbial gravitational pull of the current global order to achieve, what they have sights put on, for Hamas, the realization of some settlement with Global guarantees’ of what is their rightful right. For Iran, it is high time that they be treated as growing economy and the state and not a bad boy of the street, made history sheeter due to the pressure of the Global supremo United States on the world at large.
