Middle East oil exports have recovered sharply, yet crude prices remain above $100 a barrel. The unusual gap highlights a growing problem in the global energy market: moving oil has become far more difficult and expensive.
Kpler data showed Middle East crude and condensate exports reached around 16.5 million barrels per day in September. Exports also exceeded the pre-war average of about 18 million barrels on several days during the final week of the month.
However, stronger exports have not brought the expected relief to oil prices. Brent crude recently climbed above $102 a barrel as tanker attacks and shipping risks intensified.
Oil Is Moving, But at a Higher Cost
Producers have found new ways to move crude despite continuing risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased the use of alternative pipelines. Meanwhile, more tankers are using ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait before continuing toward Asian markets.
Kpler data indicates that around 40% of regional crude now bypasses Hormuz. Before the conflict, that figure stood at about 17%.
These changes have helped keep oil supplies moving. Nevertheless, they require more ships, longer routes and complicated transfers.
As a result, freight and insurance costs have surged. Tanker rates for Middle East-to-Asia routes have also risen sharply, adding to the final cost of delivered crude.
Could Iran Be Charging for Safe Passage?
One of the more unusual theories concerns possible payments to Iran for safe passage through Hormuz.
Michelle Brohard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, suggested some Gulf countries could be paying Iran to keep their oil shipments moving.
“I suspect there is a toll that’s being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage,” Brohard said.
She also suggested that some exporters may want to move as much crude as possible before the conflict escalates again. However, the claim remains unverified. No public evidence has conclusively established a systematic Iranian toll system.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, has also said the possibility cannot be ruled out. At the same time, analysts point to shipping costs and operational risks as more visible reasons for elevated prices.
Hormuz Remains Central to the Oil Market
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy routes. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas exports passed through the waterway.
Recent events show how quickly the market can adapt when that route becomes dangerous. Yet those alternatives come with significant costs.
In fact, tanker traffic through Hormuz fell sharply this week after a new wave of attacks. Reuters reported that crude flows through the strait dropped to about 10.1 million barrels per day on October 6, roughly 74% of pre-war levels.
Therefore, the market faces a different kind of supply problem. Oil may still be available, but transporting it safely has become harder.
Legal Questions Surround Proposed Tolls
Any formal Iranian toll system would also face major legal questions. Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, international straits generally provide ships with transit passage rights. Iran signed the convention in 1982 but never ratified it.
Tehran has also maintained that its own maritime laws apply to parts of its territorial waters. Iran has considered proposals for charges linked to guaranteed safe passage through Hormuz.
The United States has opposed Iranian tolls. Washington has also targeted financial networks allegedly connected to payments for vessel passage.
In September, the US Treasury sanctioned Iranian cryptocurrency exchange BitBank. Treasury said the exchange had been used by Iran’s Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority to transfer funds to Tehran.
Oil’s Biggest Problem Is Now Logistics
The latest developments suggest that oil prices are no longer driven only by the amount of crude available. Instead, transportation has become a major part of the equation.
More tankers are required for shuttle operations. Ships also spend longer at sea and often transfer cargo between vessels. Meanwhile, insurance costs remain high because attacks could disrupt shipping again. Those pressures can keep crude expensive even when Middle East exports recover.
The situation also affects refined products. Diesel supplies remain particularly tight, with flows through Hormuz still far below pre-war levels.
For consumers, that creates a difficult outlook. Increased crude exports could normally bring prices down. However, expensive shipping, insurance and geopolitical risk are preventing the full benefit from reaching global markets.
Until shipping through Hormuz becomes more predictable, the oil market may continue paying a premium for every barrel that reaches its destination.
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