Pakistan has been in pandemic mode for a year and a half. The virus continues to spread at a slow burn and intermittent lockdowns have become the new normal.
Scientists and medical experts are constructing short- and long-term projections but majority of them agree on two things: Covid-19 is here to stay, and the future depends on a lot of unknowns, including whether people develop lasting immunity to the virus and whether seasonality affects its spread.
It is important to note that the coronavirus pandemic is not playing out in the same way as countries such as China, New Zealand and Rwanda that implemented strict restrictions and have low level of cases.
But on the other hand the pandemic is still playing havoc with lives of the people in other countries where they lifted lockdowns quickly or never activated them nationwide.
Evidence suggests personal behavioural changes, such as hand-washing and wearing masks, are persisting beyond strict lockdown, helping to stem the tide of infections. The precautionary measures will be important in the coming months because in colder weather people will more likely to stay indoors, increasing the risk of virus transmission through droplets.
Current statistics
The trajectory taken by the Delta variant in Pakistan has shown beyond a reasonable doubt this strain of the virus spreads faster and increases chances of hospitalisation. Currently, both hospital inflow and number of critical care patients are at the highest level since start of coronavirus pandemic.
The positivity rate of Covid-19 cases across the country dropped below seven percent in the second week of Septem- ber. Total number of coronavirus cases in Pakistan is 1,194,198. As many as 26,497 patients have lost their lives while 1,076,112 have fully recovered from the disease.
Pakistan is reporting 3,885 new infections on average each day, 66 percent of the peak daily average reported on 17 June.
The country has administered at least 59,384,758 doses of Covid-19 vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs two doses, those are enough to have vaccinated about 13.7 percent of the country’s population. Top five high alert cities in first week of September on the basis of positivity ratio were Mirpur (17 percent), Muzaffarabad (14 percent), Mardan (13 percent), Peshawar (11 percent), and Lahore (10 percent).
New restrictions
On 9 September 2021, the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) extended for another week the restriction it had announced a week ago. The restrictions announced on 3 September concerned 24 districts—Punjab (15), Khyber-Pakhtoonkhawa (8) and Islamabad Capital Territory—where all private and public educational institutions were closed for a week as the ongoing fourth wave of coronavirus pandemic intensified.
Accordingly, all educational institutions remain closed until 15 September, inter-city transportation among the districts with high spread of coronavirus cases remains shut, while all kinds of indoor and outdoor functions are banned.
The government also decided that additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) would be implemented in specific districts from 4 to 12 September in order to decrease the spread of disease.
The NPIs had been imposed in the ICT, Sargodha, Khushab, Mianwali, Rahimyar Khan, Khanewal, Faisalabad, Bhakkar, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Multan, Bahawalpur, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Sialkot and Sheikhupura in Punjab, and Haripur, Malakand, Mansehra, Swabi, Dera Ismail Khan, Swat, Abbottabad and Peshawar in the Khyber-Pakhtoonkhawa.
The restrictions in these districts were imposed on the basis of latest statistics that indicated fast spread of the virus among the people. The NCOC also announced that a single dose vaccination would be necessary for travelling on highways and motorways after 15 September, while after 15 October, no one would be allowed to use motorways without full vaccination.
New coronavirus strain
A new coronavirus strain has been added to the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) watch list. The Mu strain, also called B.1.621, has been listed as a ‘variant of interest’ as of 30 August 2021. There have been 48 reported cases of the Mu strain in the United Kingdom.
The strain shares mutations with other variants of concern including the Delta variant that is currently dominating in the UK and the United States. However, it is not yet known whether Mu will be able to evade the protection of coronavirus vaccines.
The Mu variant was first documented in Colombia, in January 2021. There, it has been responsible for 852 reported cases, according to the GISAID Covid-19 tracking initiative. According to data from GISAID, the strain has been detected in at least 40 countries and in 49 states across the United States.
The strain shares mutations with other variants of concern including the Delta variant that is currently dominating in the UK and the United States. However, it is not yet known whether Mu will be able to evade the protection of coronavirus vaccines.
The Mu variant was first documented in Colombia, in January 2021. There, it has been responsible for 852 reported cases, according to the GISAID Covid-19 tracking initiative. According to data from GISAID, the strain has been detected in at least 40 countries and in 49 states across the United States.
