Europe Braces for the Trump Era: A Swift and Brutal Shift Ahead

Trump Era

European Union leaders extended congratulations to Donald J. Trump on his sweeping presidential election victory in the United States, but experts caution that the shift in U.S. leadership is unlikely to be welcomed warmly by European leaders, especially in matters of security and trade.

Trump has long been vocal in pushing Europe to increase its defense spending, with a call for NATO members to pledge 3% of their GDP towards defense. NATO had previously agreed to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP following Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, but many countries only met this target after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, pointed out the growing urgency for Europe to take charge of its security, especially if American engagement continues to wane. She emphasized that the threat from Russia necessitates a strategic shift, and Europe must lead in supporting Ukraine’s efforts against Russian aggression.

Despite NATO’s increased funding, European countries have struggled to match political will with resources, and Trump’s skepticism about further military aid to Ukraine could place an additional burden on Europe, which has already spent €43.5 billion in support.

The pressure from Trump to increase defense spending, however, could have mixed results. Guy Verhofstadt, a leading member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, expressed concern on social media, stating that the U.S. under Trump would not share European values, putting liberal democracy at risk.

French President Emmanuel Macron, a strong advocate for European strategic autonomy, quickly responded, emphasizing the need for a more unified and sovereign Europe in this changing global context.

However, Germany’s internal political challenges, including disputes within the ruling coalition and the looming possibility of early elections, could complicate efforts toward greater autonomy.

As Europe confronts the potential impact of Trump’s policies, experts believe that a painful adjustment period lies ahead. Catherine Fieschi, a fellow at the European University Institute, warned that Europe would experience initial panic and chaos due to the “brutality” of the incoming U.S. leadership, but this turmoil could ultimately drive European unity.

She pointed to the “Zeitenwende” announced by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which called for a substantial increase in defense spending, and noted that such efforts are still unfolding.

In terms of defense autonomy, Trump’s administration previously pushed European countries to rely on U.S. military hardware and dismissed the notion of European nuclear deterrence.

This could further hinder Europe’s pursuit of strategic independence. While Europe is rapidly transitioning to renewable energy, it still faces significant financial outflows, importing half a trillion dollars annually in fossil fuels, much of it from the U.S.

Moreover, Trump’s trade policies are expected to create further friction. His promises to impose significant tariffs, including a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, will particularly affect Europe.

Catherine Fieschi predicted that these trade tensions, along with the push for European industries to relocate to the U.S., will result in a “double whammy” for European economies, including agriculture and manufacturing.

This could bring together both mainstream and far-right European parties, who will likely unite in opposition to what they perceive as American economic overreach.

Ultimately, experts suggest that while Europe may be pushed to adopt more unified policies in response to Trump’s leadership, the coming period will be marked by significant challenges and debates over how to assert European autonomy in the face of external pressure from both the U.S. and Russia.