Donald Trump is unlikely to win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, but experts say his presence will loom over Friday’s announcement. The Norwegian Nobel Committee faces intense attention as it prepares to name the 2026 laureate. Trump has openly pursued the prize since returning to the White House in January 2025. He has also expressed disappointment over not receiving the award.
However, experts say several aspects of Trump’s foreign policy could weaken his chances. These include the US conflict with Iran, territorial ambitions and criticism of international institutions.
Trump Remains a Major Factor
Although Trump has recently reduced his public campaign for the prize, analysts still expect him to influence the discussion around the winner. Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, described Trump as a “spectre in the room”.
He said the committee could consider whether its decision might create more harm than benefit because of possible reactions from the White House.
However, Nobel Committee secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken said the panel regularly faces lobbying and outside pressure.
He stressed that such pressure does not determine the committee’s discussions or final decisions.
Who Could Win the Nobel Peace Prize?
The committee could choose a widely accepted humanitarian candidate this year. Possible names include Save the Children and Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms also remain among the potential choices. The volunteer network provides aid to people facing war and hunger.
At the same time, the committee could select a candidate whose work challenges policies associated with Trump.
Experts have mentioned Pope Leo XIV, UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.
Nobel Committee Faces Global Challenges
Last year, the committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. She later gave her Nobel medal to Trump after praising his support for her political cause. This year, the committee faces a very different global environment. The Peace Research Institute Oslo recorded 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025.
That figure marked the highest level since 1946, highlighting the scale of current global instability.
Meanwhile, Harpviken said the troubled international situation has not reduced the number of people and organisations doing meaningful peace work.
The committee will announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner on Friday. Until then, Trump’s campaign for the award will remain part of the wider conversation surrounding the decision.
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