Despite the devastation caused by floods and excessive rain, notably in Sindh and Balochistan, the country will have a water scarcity of 15% to 20% during the forthcoming Rabi cropping season.
The wheat crop is predicted to be most negatively impacted by the anticipated water scarcity for the Rabi season, which starts on October 1.
The total amount of water available for the cropping season was estimated at 30.5-33.5 million acre feet (MAF) at a meeting of the Indus River System Authority’s (Irsa) technical committee, which was chaired by Director Regulations Khalid Idrees Rana. This included 21–24 MAF of river flows reaching rim stations and about 9.5 MAF in water reservoirs. The water requirement for Rabi crops is presently between 37 and 38 MAF.
Representatives from the provinces, the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), and the Met Office were present at the technical committee meeting. It was reported that Tarbela Dam was fully operational, while storage in Mangla Dam was only about 50% of the conservation level.
Based on these projections, the committee decided to keep the season’s overall water shortage between 15 and 20 percent.
However, because Punjab and Sindh disagreed with the estimation of water losses, the committee was unable to reach a final decision regarding the availability of water.
According to estimations, water lost through absorption or evaporation was predicted to be zero for the Jhelum-Chenab region, eight percent for the Indus region by Sindh, and zero percent for Punjab.
According to the representatives of Punjab, traditionally, losses in a flood year have always been insignificant due to water absorption. Sindh, on the other hand, believed that this year was not a typical flood year because the majority of the high rainfalls occurred in streams and nullahs rather than inside the river’s reaches. Furthermore, rainfall in dam catchments was even 10 to 13 percent below historical averages.
The committee submitted the issue to the advisory committee for a final determination due to the dispute. Whether to adopt the viewpoint of Sindh or Punjab will also be decided by the advisory group, which is led by the Irsa chairman.
The estimated water availability and distribution plan across the provinces would be finalised following the committee meeting on September 29.
The advisory group will have to cope with Wapda’s plan to close Trabela Dam’s Tunnel-5 for 33 months (almost six cropping seasons) in order to build a 1,400MW power plant, which will be an even more pressing issue.
The design, which also addresses how a miles-long delta that was formed by silt and sedimentation and may obstruct the main dam in the event of an earthquake, will be discussed by the committee.
This estimation of water shortages comes at a time when large swathes of land in Sindh were still under water or had more water than required for wheat sowing.
Resultantly, the sowing would remain under stress even though it was still premature to reach a conclusive opinion about the impact.
This year about 37MAF water flowed down to the sea in the Kharif season beginning April 1. However the water couldn’t be conserved since most of the rains were in downstream of the two reservoirs.
The Water Accord 1991 empowered Irsa to determine water availability in the country and the provinces’ share twice a year, for Kharif and Rabi seasons. Rabi season starts from Oct 1 and ends on March 31, while Kharif starts from April 1 and continues till Sept 30.
