ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s fertility rate has declined significantly over the past three decades, dropping from six live births per woman in 1994 to 3.6 in 2024, according to the United Nations’ World Fertility Report 2024.
The report highlights that as of 2024, around 1.8 billion people—22% of the global population—live in 63 countries currently in the early or intermediate stages of demographic transition. These nations are expected to reach low fertility rates after 2054.
Pakistan is projected to become the world’s third most populous country by 2050, surpassing the United States, Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia.
The report also notes that early childbearing is less common in Pakistan compared to other countries, with an adolescent birth rate of 39 per 1,000. This lower rate means that a decline in teenage pregnancies will have a minimal effect on the total number of births, reducing it by just 6% by 2054.
By 2050, Pakistan’s population is expected to exceed 380 million, with the fertility rate forecasted to drop further to 2.5 by 2054.
“Pakistan, along with Ethiopia and Nigeria, had fertility rates above six live births per woman in 1994, which have now declined to 3.6, 3.9, and 4.4, respectively,” the report stated.
A slower birth rate would allow both governments and families to better allocate resources, leading to improved health and well-being for children and adolescents, the report added. It also urged governments to strengthen legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms to protect the rights of women and girls.
Despite the fertility decline, Pakistan’s overall population growth rate has accelerated. The country’s 2023 Digital Population and Housing Census revealed that the growth rate increased to 2.55% over the past five years, up from 2.4% recorded between 1998 and 2017.
Former British High Commissioner Christian Turner warned in 2020 that Pakistan’s population could double within 30 years, putting immense pressure on the country’s resources. He emphasized the need for a strategic response to address the challenges posed by rapid population growth.
