Karachi has experienced an unusually dry monsoon season this year, with rainfall levels resembling conditions last recorded nearly three decades ago.
According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the city witnessed a similar pattern in 1997. At that time, active El Niño conditions coincided with exceptionally low monsoon rainfall in Karachi.
The latest weather pattern has raised attention because Karachi depends heavily on weather systems developing over the sea. However, those systems have remained absent during the current monsoon season.
El Niño Linked to Karachi’s Dry Monsoon
The PMD has attributed the unusually low rainfall to active El Niño conditions over the sea. These conditions have affected the weather patterns that normally help bring rain to Karachi.
Karachi can receive significant rainfall when low-pressure systems develop over the sea. These systems must then move into favourable positions to produce rain across the city.
This year, however, the Arabian Sea has not shown the required activity. As a result, the chances of a meaningful monsoon spell have remained extremely limited.
The absence of rain-producing systems has therefore contributed to Karachi’s unusually dry weather. Moreover, the remaining monsoon period offers little hope for a major change.
Little Chance of Rain in Coming Weeks
The weather department said no rain-producing system is expected to affect Karachi during the remaining days of August. Therefore, residents should not expect significant monsoon rainfall before the month ends.
The outlook for September also remains largely dry. According to the PMD, the chances of monsoon rainfall in Karachi during September are extremely low.
Consequently, the city could continue experiencing unusually dry conditions as the monsoon season approaches its end.
The current situation closely resembles the pattern observed in 1997. That year also saw El Niño conditions alongside very limited monsoon rainfall in Karachi.
When Does Karachi’s Monsoon Season End?
The Met Office said Karachi and other parts of Pakistan generally experience the monsoon season from July 15 to September 15.
However, the monsoon season can continue for longer in the country’s upper and northern regions. In those areas, monsoon systems may remain active until September 30.
For Karachi, the remaining period therefore offers a relatively narrow window for meaningful rainfall. Yet, current atmospheric conditions suggest that such rainfall is unlikely.
The unusually dry season highlights how strongly large-scale weather patterns can influence rainfall across Karachi. For now, the lack of favourable systems over the Arabian Sea continues to limit the city’s chances of receiving substantial monsoon rain.
