In an unprecedented show of civic engagement, 7.3 million Canadians cast their ballots during four days of advance polling over the Easter weekend — a 25% increase from the 5.8 million early voters in the 2021 federal election, according to Elections Canada.
The agency acknowledged the surge in turnout but offered no official explanation, simply thanking voters for their patience and election workers for their commitment. However, the dramatic rise comes against the backdrop of heightened political stakes, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and controversial remarks about Canada’s potential annexation dominating the national conversation.
These issues have become central to a high-stakes, 37-day election campaign, where the core question for many voters is which party is best equipped to navigate Canada’s relationship with an increasingly unpredictable southern neighbor.
A campaign shaped by crisis
The election, set for April 28, has seen intense campaigning by the Liberal Party under new Prime Minister Mark Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
Carney, a former central banker brought in to stabilize the government after Justin Trudeau’s resignation, has framed the vote as a referendum on sovereignty, economic resilience, and national identity.
Meanwhile, Trump’s steep tariffs on steel, lumber, and auto parts — combined with his flippant comment suggesting Canada would make a good “51st state” — have stoked public concern over economic independence and national pride.
Liberal resurgence
While the Conservatives held a commanding lead for months, the political landscape shifted dramatically following Trudeau’s January departure. Carney’s technocratic leadership style and focus on stability appear to have resonated with voters.
A new Nanos Research poll, conducted April 19–21, shows the Liberals leading with 42.6%, ahead of the Conservatives at 37.1%, and the NDP trailing at 10.4%. If those numbers hold, the Liberals could secure a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
The poll, based on interviews with 1,308 respondents, has a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Voter engagement surges
Canada’s population is just over 41 million, making the advance vote turnout of 7.3 million a significant portion of the electorate — and a potential indicator of strong overall turnout on election day.
With less than a week to go, the final stretch of the campaign is expected to intensify as party leaders make their final pitch to a deeply engaged electorate.
This election, more than most, appears to be about more than just policy. It’s about identity, sovereignty, and who Canadians trust to protect the nation’s future in a turbulent geopolitical climate.
