New Nuclear Doctrine
MOSCOW: On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a significant update to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks.
This move came shortly after Ukraine reportedly struck deep inside Russian territory using U.S.-made ATACMS missiles. These developments follow warnings from Moscow to the West, particularly the United States, regarding the potential consequences of providing Ukraine with advanced weapons, including missiles capable of striking deep into Russian territory.
According to U.S. officials, the Biden administration allowed Ukraine to use these weapons in their ongoing war against Russia, a decision that has provoked a strong reaction from Moscow.
Russia had previously warned that if NATO members, including the U.S., U.K., and France, permitted Ukraine to use these missiles, it would consider those nations directly involved in the conflict.
The updated Russian nuclear doctrine now establishes conditions under which Russia could resort to nuclear weapons, specifically in response to a conventional attack on Russia or its ally, Belarus, if such an attack is deemed to create a “critical threat” to their sovereignty or territorial integrity.
Analysts noted that the biggest change in the updated doctrine is the lowered threshold for using nuclear weapons, particularly in response to conventional warfare.
Under the previous 2020 doctrine, nuclear weapons were considered only in cases of nuclear attacks or conventional attacks that posed an existential threat to the state.
The revised doctrine also includes a broader definition of data that could indicate a mass attack against Russia from aircraft, missiles, or drones, further escalating the scope of what could trigger a nuclear response.
Additionally, Russia’s defense ministry reported that Ukraine had recently launched a missile strike on Russia’s Bryansk region, though air defense systems intercepted most of the projectiles.
These changes reflect the growing tensions between Russia and the West, as the war in Ukraine enters a more dangerous phase. Russian and Western officials have expressed concern that this phase could be the most perilous yet, with Moscow’s forces making their most significant advances since the early weeks of the conflict.
The situation is reminiscent of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, with both superpowers now facing the prospect of nuclear confrontation. Russian diplomats have warned that the West is mistaken if it believes Russia will back down over Ukraine, emphasizing the inevitability of retaliation if attacked.
Putin’s updated nuclear doctrine was released as Russia seeks to clarify its stance on nuclear deterrence, emphasizing that the use of nuclear weapons is intended to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies.
Kremlin officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, have stated that the doctrine aims to convey to potential adversaries the certainty of retaliation should they attack Russia.
In response to these developments, markets reacted sharply, with safe-haven assets such as government bonds, gold, and the Japanese yen seeing a significant rise in value.
The publication of Russia’s updated nuclear policy signals a further escalation in the geopolitical standoff, and it remains to be seen how the West will respond to Moscow’s increasingly hardline stance.
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