Kolkata, India – Manpreet Singh, a 22-year-old student from Moradabad in Uttar Pradesh, has long dreamed of pursuing higher education abroad. Like many in his community, Singh had set his sights on Canada, where a large Sikh diaspora is settled. However, the escalating diplomatic tensions between India and Canada have now derailed his plans, leaving him disheartened and reconsidering his options.
“Canada was always my top choice for studying abroad, as many people from our community live there, and I would have felt at home. I had convinced my parents to support my decision, but now, given the current turmoil between the two countries, they have refused,” Singh explained.
His father, Inderjeet Singh, emphasized that safety concerns are now paramount. “We want him to receive a good education, but with the current situation, we prefer to send him to a safer country,”
Singh is not alone. Several students from India, particularly from northern states like Punjab and Haryana, who had planned to go to Canada for their studies, have had to rethink their options due to the deteriorating diplomatic relations between the two nations. This tension stems from the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh linked to the Khalistan movement, a separatist movement seeking an independent Sikh state. Nijjar was assassinated in June 2023 by two masked gunmen in Surrey, British Columbia.
In the aftermath of the killing, Canada accused India of being involved in the assassination, and Ottawa has leveled further accusations against Indian authorities, including Home Minister Amit Shah, alleging a campaign of violence against Sikh activists. Diplomatic reprisals followed, with both countries expelling diplomats, escalating the diplomatic standoff.
Impact on Students and Education Consultants
Beyond the political fallout, the tensions have cast a shadow over the aspirations of thousands of Indian students who had planned to go to Canada for higher education. Many students, like Singh, are now reconsidering their choices or deferring their plans.
The diplomatic crisis has also affected education and immigration consultants, who rely heavily on students heading abroad. These consultants, who charge fees ranging from 50,000 to 500,000 rupees (about $594 to $5,945), assist students with application processes, documentation, and university selection. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding Canada has created a significant disruption in their business as well.
As of 2024, over 1.3 million Indian students are studying abroad, with Canada hosting the largest number—427,000, accounting for 41 percent of all international students in the country. In comparison, the United States has 337,000 Indian students, the United Kingdom has 185,000, and Germany hosts 42,997. With Canada being a popular destination for Indian students, the current diplomatic standoff represents a significant blow to the higher education plans of many.
In light of these developments, students like Manpreet Singh are now exploring alternatives in Europe and other countries, marking a shift in their educational pursuits amidst the growing uncertainty surrounding India-Canada relations.
Pratibha Jain, founder of Eduabroad, an education consultancy with three decades of experience helping students gain admission to top universities worldwide, told Al Jazeera that there has been a 10 percent decline in inquiries for Canada. This trend, she noted, is shifting towards other destinations like the UK, Australia, Dubai, and various European countries.
Domestic Issues Adding to the Shift
While diplomatic tensions between India and Canada have been a significant factor, Canada’s domestic political and economic issues are also playing a role in deterring international students. In January, the Canadian government introduced a cap on international student permit applications for the next two years, citing pressure on housing, healthcare, and other public services. As a result, the intake of international students is expected to fall by 35 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year, with an additional 10 percent reduction in 2025.
Gurtej Singh Sandhu, an education consultant based in Chandigarh, estimates that over 150,000 education and immigration consultancies in northern India—particularly in Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi—generate an annual turnover of approximately 12 billion rupees ($142 million). Many of these consultancies depend heavily on sending students to Canada, which now accounts for only 20 to 25 percent of their business. Several consultancies have been forced to shut down due to the downturn.
Policy Changes and Stricter Regulations
Canada’s policy changes are also discouraging students. Traditionally, many international students viewed Canadian student visas as a route to settle in the country. Graduates of Canadian universities could apply for an open work permit, which allowed them to work across various sectors—even in jobs unrelated to their field of study. Spouses of students could also get work permits. This policy led to the growth of several educational institutions, including private career colleges offering courses in collaboration with public colleges, although the quality varied widely.
However, the Trudeau government recently restricted the issuance of open work permits to postgraduate students in public colleges and universities, effectively barring private and public-private colleges from offering such permits. While spouse work permits continue to be issued, the shift has led many students to reconsider their plans to move to Canada, especially those from India, said Sandhu.
Rising Costs and Housing Shortages
In addition to these policy changes, the financial burden on international students has increased. The Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC), a mandatory liquid investment required for international students, has more than doubled since January, now standing at $20,635. This increase, combined with Canada’s ongoing housing shortage and high living costs, has led many Indian students to rethink their options.
Maninder Singh Arora, the founder of Apexvisas, a Pune-based immigration consultancy, confirmed that the demand for Canada has decreased significantly. “While the demand for Canada is not gone, it has certainly dropped,” he told Al Jazeera. Arora’s company has sent 55 students to Canada this year, compared to 80 students last year. The rise in expenses, combined with concerns about housing and political instability, has contributed to the decline.
Economic Impact and Future Outlook
Despite the challenges, Canada’s international students remain a vital economic contributor, with Indian students alone generating around $37.3 billion for the Canadian economy in 2022. However, Manan Gupta, a regulated Canadian immigration consultant (RCIC) based in Brampton, a Toronto suburb popular with Indian immigrants, suggested that Canada may need to reduce its intake of international students. “The infrastructure in Canada is struggling to keep up with the influx of people, many of whom are using education as a backdoor to take up jobs and settle here,” he said.
Gupta also pointed out that parents may hesitate to send their children to a country where there are no diplomatic officials available to handle any emergencies or untoward situations. The future of Canada’s immigration policies, he said, will largely depend on the outcomes of the upcoming elections in October.
As tensions between India and Canada persist and Canada grapples with its domestic challenges, students like Manpreet Singh, who once saw Canada as their ideal destination, are now exploring alternatives to continue their education abroad.
