A French gambler, known only as Theo, has emerged with an extraordinary $85 million profit after placing a massive $70 million bet on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Theo’s wager was placed on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform technically restricted to non-U.S. residents, that has recently attracted attention for allowing bets on politically sensitive events.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Theo, a former trader and French citizen, declined to disclose his full name. However, blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis confirmed his identity after a detailed investigation. This inquiry tracked a series of well-coordinated bets placed across 11 accounts on Polymarket, each of which displayed identical betting and withdrawal patterns following the election results. These accounts consistently placed bets simultaneously and withdrew winnings in sync once Trump was confirmed the victor over rival candidate Kamala Harris.
Theo’s bet initially totaled $70 million, a significant investment that proved worthwhile after Polymarket—whose predictions had already favored Trump—listed him as the election’s predicted winner. As a result, Theo not only recouped his initial stake but also earned a remarkable $85 million on top of it. Despite media coverage suggesting a close race between Trump and Harris, Polymarket users appeared heavily inclined toward Trump’s success.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket operates offshore and uses cryptocurrency for transactions, effectively barring U.S.-based participants. This framework has invited scrutiny from regulatory bodies, particularly as concerns mount over legal implications tied to online political betting markets. Recently, the FBI searched Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s New York home, confiscating his phone and other devices. While the reason for the investigation remains unclear, a Polymarket representative called the incident “political retribution,” speculating it may relate to the platform’s accurate election predictions.
Although Polymarket did not respond to questions from AFP, Theo confirmed his $85 million win in a recent Wall Street Journal interview. His success underscores the rising significance of cryptocurrency and betting in political events, prompting new discussions around the regulatory landscape for such platforms.
