Millions of Sri Lankans will head to the polls on Saturday to elect the island country’s president. More than 17 million voters are eligible to cast ballots to elect a president for a five-year term.
Among nearly 40 candidates vying for votes are incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, Marxist-leaning parliamentarian Anura Kumara Dissanayake, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, and Namal Rajapaksa, the heir apparent to the once-powerful Rajapaksa clan.
This is the first presidential election since the island nation declared bankruptcy in 2022, leading to the ouster of the government, including the serving president.
The election is seen as a referendum on Wickremesinghe’s two years in office, which has seen a slight recovery in the country’s economy since the 2022 financial crisis.
Tough contest likely
A tough contest is expected between frontrunners Wickremesinghe, Dissanayake, and Premadasa for the coveted office, with analysts saying the race will be tight.
Dissanayake, leader of the Marxist-led coalition National People’s Power (NPP), is slightly leading the contest, according to recent polls. Enjoying popularity especially among young voters, he is calling for the public to back him to bring down poverty and fight corruption.
Wickremesinghe, whose United National Party took a hit from defectors founding a breakaway group, is running as an independent candidate.
The six-time prime minister is hoping to regain a mandate, although he remains unpopular for his government’s tough economic decisions, including sharp tax hikes in exchange for an IMF bailout package.
His government nevertheless largely managed to mitigate shortages of essentials such as fuel, cooking gas, medicines, and food.
However, his longstanding association with the country’s old guard, whom Sri Lankans blame for the economic collapse, may hobble his hopes.
Premadasa, the incumbent president’s former deputy and leader of his breakaway party, the United People’s Power, is also hoping for victory, pledging to continue with the IMF program but with changes to ease the burden on the poor.
Namal Rajapaksa, whose father, Mahinda Rajapaksa, is credited with crushing the Tamil armed separatist movement in 2009, has pledged to ease the tax burden on Sri Lankans and build a strong economy.
Minority votes
Minority votes will be crucial to winning the presidential race. The Tamil and Muslim voters who combined make up 20% of the island country’s 22 million population hold the key to tilt the election in favor of a frontrunner of their choice.
Tamils, largely spread across the island’s northern and eastern regions, account for 11% of Sri Lanka’s total population, prompting the three frontrunners to woo their votes. Yet campaigning in Tamil-dominated areas this year has seen less fanfare.
Fifteen years after the end of an insurgency in 2009, northern Sri Lanka continues to reel under its multiple impacts, ranging from wartime disappearances, homes under military occupation, livelihoods, unemployment, infrastructure development, and safety. The Muslim community, making up 9% of the total population, is primarily backing Premadasa.
The country’s main Muslim political party, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, has already extended its support to the opposition leader.
The election results are expected to be announced on Sunday, with a new president sworn in shortly thereafter. No matter who wins the race, he will have a daunting task to revamp the country’s floundering economy and keep things afloat, which analysts say will be a formidable climb.
