ISLAMABAD: To fulfill an IMF condition for disclosing quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, the government has released the growth rate for the second quarter (Oct-Dec) of the current fiscal year, estimating it at 1 percent.
Furthermore, the government has revised upward the GDP growth figure for the first quarter (July-Sept) of the caretaker government period, adjusting it from 2.13 percent to 2.5 percent, in line with revised estimates.
Although the government initially aimed for a GDP growth rate target of 3.5 percent, Islamabad has revised it downward to approximately 2 to 2.6 percent.
An official announcement was made following a National Accounts Committee (NAC) meeting held on Thursday, stating that the 108th NAC meeting reviewed the quarterly GDP estimates for Q1 and Q2 of the fiscal year 2023-24 at the Auditorium of Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives.
The introduction of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) in the country’s statistical system was approved during the 107th NAC meeting held in November 2023. QNA provides more frequent updates on the economy compared to the Annual National Accounts (ANA). The committee also sanctioned the revised first-quarter estimates for 2023-24.
The revised growth for Q1 of the financial year 2023-24 stands at 2.50 percent, up from the previous estimate of 2.13 percent during the tenure of the previous caretaker government.
Agricultural growth saw a significant upward revision to 8.58 percent from 5.06 percent, primarily driven by an increase in crop production, with key crops experiencing double-digit growth. Notably, cotton production surged by 108.2 percent to 10.22 million bales, rice production increased by 34.8 percent, and maize production increased by 5.6 percent.
Despite improvements in mining and quarrying, the industry witnessed a downward revision to -0.24 percent growth compared to 2.48 percent previously. This was mainly due to declines in large-scale manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply, and construction. Services saw a modest improvement from 0.82 percent to 0.92 percent, attributed to finance and insurance.
In Q2 2023-24, the economy experienced modest growth of 1.0 percent, with agriculture growing by 5.02 percent compared to the same period last year. However, the industry continued to show negative growth (-0.84 percent), while services posted nominal growth of 0.01 percent. Various sectors within services reflected mixed trends, with some experiencing growth while others faced declines, influenced by factors such as inflation and government expenditure.
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