Survey reflects shifting political landscape as analysts revise key congressional race forecasts
WASHINGTON: Democrats hold an eight-point advantage over Republicans ahead of the US midterm elections, according to a new CNN poll released on Thursday, as President Donald Trump continues to face challenges over his approval ratings and public concerns about the economy and foreign policy.
The survey found that 47 percent of registered voters would support a Democratic candidate if congressional elections were held immediately, compared with 39 percent who said they would vote for a Republican candidate. Another 11 percent indicated they would not support either major party.
The findings come during a politically challenging period for the Republican Party, with recent opinion polls showing voter dissatisfaction over the ongoing conflict involving Iran, economic concerns and a series of Democratic electoral gains.
Approval ratings and race forecasts shift
According to Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Trump’s approval rating stood at 40.6 percent on Thursday, while his disapproval rating reached 57.5 percent.
Meanwhile, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics updated several election forecasts, reflecting what analysts described as a more favourable environment for Democrats.
The election forecasting service shifted its rating for Georgia’s US Senate race from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic,” improving the outlook for Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff’s re-election campaign.
In addition, Sabato’s Crystal Ball reclassified five US House races as toss-ups after previously rating them as leaning Republican.
Poll conducted among registered voters
CNN conducted the survey between July 23 and July 27, interviewing 1,225 registered voters nationwide.
The poll has a reported margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
While opinion polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment at a particular moment, political analysts note that public opinion can shift significantly before Election Day as campaigns intensify and major domestic or international developments influence voters.
The latest polling nevertheless suggests Democrats currently maintain an advantage in the race for control of Congress, although both parties are expected to mount extensive campaigns during the final months before Americans head to the polls.
