Government report links prolonged decline to shifting public sentiment and cross-border disputes
OTTAWA: Canadian travel to the United States fell by 25% in 2025 and remained below previous levels during the opening months of 2026, according to a new Canadian government report that highlights the economic impact of changing travel patterns.
The report, cited by Axios, said travel sentiment shifted sharply after the change in the US administration in early 2025, the introduction of “America First” policies and repeated comments by US President Donald Trump suggesting Canada could become the “51st state.”
Statistics Canada reported that return trips from the United States declined year-on-year for 11 consecutive months in 2025, marking the longest sustained decrease outside the Covid-19 pandemic since digital records began in 1972.
Traditionally, Canada has been the largest source of international visitors to the United States.
Travellers redirect spending elsewhere
According to the report, Canadians spent C$3.3 billion less on travel to the United States in 2025, with leisure travel accounting for most of the decline.
Overall spending on US trips fell to C$18.8 billion from C$22.1 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, expenditure on overseas leisure travel increased by C$3.6 billion to C$22.8 billion, reflecting a growing preference for destinations beyond North America.
The report also found that many Canadians chose domestic holidays instead of US travel, rather than cancelling trips altogether.
Signs of gradual recovery emerge
Statistics Canada estimated there were 7.1 million fewer trips to the United States in 2025. However, those were partially offset by five million additional domestic trips and 1.3 million more overseas journeys.
Data covering April to June 2026 suggest the decline in cross-border travel may be easing, with increased automobile travel contributing to a modest recovery, although air travel continues to lag behind previous levels.
The White House did not immediately respond to Axios’ request for comment.
The report noted that future US tourism figures, including visitor arrivals linked to major international events such as the FIFA World Cup, will provide a clearer picture of whether increased arrivals from other countries can offset the reduction in Canadian visitors.
