Texas Democrats are entering the November 3 midterm elections with renewed hopes of challenging decades of Republican dominance. Rising concerns over immigration enforcement and the cost of living have put President Donald Trump’s support under pressure.
Republicans have controlled statewide offices in Texas for decades, with no Democrat winning statewide office since 1994. Trump also carried the conservative state by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
However, this year’s contests for the US Senate and governor have drawn unusual attention. Recent polls suggest closer races, giving Democrats an opportunity to challenge the Republican advantage.
James Talarico Challenges Trump Ally Ken Paxton
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and state lawmaker, has emerged as a central figure in the contest. His campaign combines Christian faith, economic populism and appeals for greater political unity.
Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian, is seeking support from independents and Republicans dissatisfied with Trump. He argues that Texans share common interests despite the country’s deepening political divisions.
“I’ll always put Texas before any political party,” he has said.
A University of Texas poll released this week placed Talarico ahead of Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, by 50% to 47%. However, the margin falls within the survey’s margin of error. A separate UMass Lowell poll found the candidates tied.
Trump has actively campaigned for Paxton, warning that a Republican defeat could threaten the party’s narrow Senate majority.
“It’s a killer in Congress because we have a very close majority. We can’t let that happen,” Trump said at a recent rally in San Antonio. He also mocked Talarico with the nickname “Talafreako” and accused Democrats of wanting to reopen the country’s borders.
Ken Paxton’s Controversies Complicate the Republican Race
Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn during a bitter Republican primary contest. The decision came despite concerns that Paxton’s controversies could weaken the party’s position in the general election.
In 2023, the Republican-controlled Texas House impeached Paxton over allegations of corruption and abuse of power. However, the state Senate acquitted him.
In a notable development, Dan Cogdell, one of the lawyers who defended Paxton during the proceedings, has since endorsed Talarico.
More recently, The Wall Street Journal reported that Paxton spent New Year’s Eve in Dubai with two American businessmen indicted over alleged healthcare fraud. Both men have pleaded not guilty.
Despite these controversies, Paxton continues to enjoy support among conservatives aligned with Trump, including some voters who have expressed reservations about him.
Immigration Raids and Living Costs Test Trump’s Support
Democrats are also seeking to capitalise on concerns about immigration enforcement and economic pressures. Trump’s strong performance in Texas in 2024 partly reflected gains among Latino voters, particularly along the southern border with Mexico.
However, some of those voters are now reconsidering their political support. A May survey by Latino civil rights group UnidosUS found that one in five Texas Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 would not vote for him again.
Meanwhile, cattle industry groups in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma have warned that immigration raids disrupt agricultural businesses. They say the raids deter legally employed workers and threaten to increase beef prices.
These concerns have become part of a broader debate over household expenses and the economic effects of immigration enforcement.
Texas Governor’s Race Also Draws Attention
The political uncertainty extends beyond the Senate contest to the governor’s race. Three-term Republican incumbent Greg Abbott faces an unexpectedly close challenge from state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.
Hinojosa has focused her campaign on the cost of living, aiming to attract voters beyond the traditional Democratic base.
For some Texans, dissatisfaction with Trump has become a reason to reconsider their choices. Melendez, describing his shift in political allegiance, said:
“I didn’t vote for Trump because I liked him,” he told AFP. “I voted for Trump to punish Biden. And I’m going to vote for the Democrat for the same reason: to punish Trump.”
With the Senate seat and governorship at stake on November 3, Texas has become a closely watched battleground. The results will test whether voter concerns over immigration, living costs and Republican candidates’ controversies can reshape the state’s political landscape.
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