Power structure faces war pressure and uncertain succession
The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has thrust the Islamic Republic into its most dangerous moment since the 1979 revolution. The country now confronts active military strikes on its territory, an unresolved leadership transition, and mounting internal strain.
However, regional officials and analysts caution against predictions of rapid collapse. They argue that Iran deliberately designed its political system to distribute authority across clerical institutions, security bodies, and entrenched power networks. As a result, the structure does not rely solely on one individual.
At the center of that system stands the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), widely viewed as Iran’s core power base. Analysts say the key question is whether the Guards emerge weakened by battlefield losses or consolidate control around a more security-driven governance model. In the immediate aftermath, Tehran has moved swiftly to project continuity, with military and command structures still functioning despite heavy pressure.
Leadership transition and external pressure shape next phase
Meanwhile, Iran faces a critical succession process. The constitution assigns the selection of a new supreme leader to the Assembly of Experts. Yet wartime conditions could push the country toward either a quickly appointed successor or a temporary leadership council.
Veteran politician Ali Larijani announced that a transitional council would oversee affairs during the interim period. Figures such as Larijani and parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf have emerged as potential bridge leaders.
Externally, Israel has signaled that its military campaign will continue, targeting political and security institutions linked to Iran’s ruling establishment. U.S. and Israeli officials indicate that further strikes aim to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities and test regime stability.
Consequently, Iran now faces three tests: maintaining internal cohesion, managing succession under fire, and containing potential public unrest.
