An American think tank has warned that Pakistan’s disputes with India and Afghanistan could escalate into armed conflict in 2026, placing South Asia among the world’s most volatile regions.
The warning comes from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in its latest report, Conflicts to Watch in 2026, released by its Center for Preventive Action. The report identifies South Asia as a key global flashpoint amid rising geopolitical instability.
According to the assessment, renewed armed conflict between Pakistan and India carries a moderate likelihood and moderate potential impact, particularly over Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
The report cautioned that escalating violence and coercive policies in the disputed territory could once again push the two nuclear-armed neighbours toward direct military confrontation, posing serious risks to regional stability.
The report referred to the May conflict between Pakistan and India, which erupted after India launched strikes on Pakistan following an attack on tourists in Pahalgam, located in IIOJK.
New Delhi accused Pakistan-based elements of carrying out the attack that killed 26 people, a claim Islamabad strongly denied while calling for an independent and neutral investigation. Hostilities lasted 87 hours before a ceasefire was brokered by the United States on May 10.
The CFR also highlighted the risk of renewed conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, driven by cross-border militant attacks originating from Afghan territory. While the likelihood of escalation was assessed as moderate, the potential impact was considered relatively low. Nevertheless, the report warned that persistent instability could further inflame tensions between the two neighbours.
In October, Pakistan and Afghanistan witnessed border clashes following attacks on Pakistani posts, leading to significant casualties on both sides. Despite diplomatic engagements, efforts to de-escalate tensions have so far failed.
Beyond South Asia, the CFR identified ongoing violence in Gaza and the West Bank, the Russia-Ukraine war, potential US military action in Venezuela, and rising political violence within the United States as major global security risks in the year ahead.
