Satellite imagery released by Maxar on December 13, 2024, shows Russia removing military equipment from its Khmeimim airbase in Syria. This shift follows uncertainties regarding Russia’s military presence in the region after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime was overthrown by Islamist rebels, forcing him to flee to Moscow.
Maxar’s images show two An-124 transport planes at Khmeimim, loading heavy equipment. Helicopters are being disassembled for transport, and Russian S-400 air defense systems have been relocated from their original site. The Russian Navy’s base at Tartus, however, remains unchanged.
While tactical aircraft remain, experts suggest Russia is consolidating its presence at Khmeimim and Tartus, signaling a possible withdrawal. However, Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, noted that it’s unclear if this represents a complete exit. Diplomatic sources have indicated that Russia might withdraw entirely from Syria, including from both Tartus and Khmeimim.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed this week that it was negotiating with the insurgents controlling areas around Tartus and Khmeimim, receiving security guarantees in return. The Kremlin is still discussing the future of its military infrastructure with Syria’s new leadership.
Russia’s involvement in Syria, dating back to 2015, helped turn the tide of the civil war in Assad’s favor. However, with Moscow now focused on its military operations in Ukraine, analysts suggest it lacks the resources to intervene in Syria once more. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized that the war in Ukraine is Russia’s priority, assuring that the objectives of the “special military operation” will be fulfilled.
