The recent occurrence of moderate earthquakes in both Iran and Israel on October 5 has sparked widespread speculation regarding their possible causes. The 4.6 magnitude quake struck near Aradan in Semnan province at a shallow depth of 10 km, with tremors felt as far away as Tehran, approximately 110 km from the epicenter, according to the US Geological Survey.
Shortly after the first earthquake, a weaker tremor was detected in Israel around midnight, intensifying concerns and theories surrounding these seismic events. The unusual timing, combined with the existing geopolitical tensions between the two nations, has led to rampant speculation on social media regarding a potential covert nuclear test.
One X user commented, “Iran has gone nuclear since last night. They used test bombs 10 km underground near Semnan to minimize radiation exposure, resulting in the 4.6 magnitude earthquake recorded by seismographs.”
Another user remarked, “That Iranian earthquake really alarmed Israel. They are debating whether to attack Iran. The key seems to be possessing nuclear capabilities—no nation will confront a nuclear power.”
Another post stated, “Iran has shown it can accurately deliver a warhead anywhere it chooses, and now this desert earthquake is increasingly resembling a nuclear test.”
Furthermore, a user highlighted parallels with past events: “A 4.5 earthquake struck Iran yesterday amid rumors of a nuclear test. In February 2013, an earthquake in North Korea was confirmed as a nuclear test. A November 2017 earthquake in Iran also raised similar suspicions. Iran could amass sufficient fissile material in just weeks. What’s the reality?”
While underground nuclear tests can generate seismic activity, the specifics of this incident raise questions. Iran’s fortified nuclear sites, such as Natanz, are built deep underground, suggesting the capability for such operations. However, the earthquake’s shallow depth and moderate magnitude do not definitively indicate a nuclear test, as conducting an underground explosion without causing surface disruption is complex.
The current political environment exacerbates fears regarding Iran’s advancing nuclear capabilities. Following the killings of key figures in Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran launched approximately 400 missiles at Israel on October 1.
Since Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Israeli airstrikes have reportedly resulted in the deaths of over 42,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly the entire population of Gaza. Israel has also targeted regions in southern Lebanon, resulting in approximately 2,000 fatalities and forcing thousands to flee. Despite the escalating humanitarian crisis, the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, with backing from the United States, shows no signs of reducing military operations.
