With the 2024 US presidential election on the horizon, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged out former President Donald Trump, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. The survey, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, shows Harris leading Trump by a slim 44% to 42%, a margin within the 3-percentage-point error threshold.
This shift follows President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would end his re-election campaign and endorse Harris. The decision came after a turbulent debate where Biden, at 81, struggled to counter Trump’s attacks, leading to perceptions of diminished effectiveness.
The poll highlights a notable change from earlier surveys. Kamala Harris and Trump were tied in a July 15-16 poll and Trump held a slight lead in early July. Despite the close national figures, the outcome in key battleground states will ultimately determine the election, as the US Electoral College plays a decisive role.
Support for Harris appears robust among Democratic voters, with 80% viewing Biden favorably compared to 91% for Harris. The poll reveals that 56% of voters believe Harris is mentally sharp and capable of handling challenges, a significant improvement over Trump’s 49% and Biden’s 22%.
The poll also included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a hypothetical ballot scenario. Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy attracting 8% of voter support. Kennedy has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states, which could impact his overall influence.
In response to her rising profile, Harris has begun campaigning in critical battleground states like Wisconsin. Attention now turns to her choice of running mate, with potential candidates including US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Buttigieg has the highest favorability rating among these options, though a significant portion of voters are unfamiliar with the other potential picks.
The poll surveyed 1,241 US adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters, and provides a snapshot of the shifting political landscape as the 2024 election approaches.
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