The dream of a White Christmas—a highlight of the holiday season—looks unlikely for much of the United States this year. Meteorologists define a White Christmas as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25 morning. It is the snow already on the ground, not snowfall on Christmas Day itself, that matters.
Northern States Lead Snow Chances
The best chances for snow are in the northern U.S. and higher elevations. Areas with existing snow are more likely to keep their cover through Christmas.
In the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and North Dakota have the highest probability of a White Christmas. Snow already on the ground there can withstand warming temperatures.
In Northern New England and the Adirondacks, northern Maine and New York’s Adirondack Mountains recently received fresh snow. These areas are likely to remain snowy through Christmas morning.
The Mountain West, including the Rockies, Sierra Nevada, and Cascades, also offers reliable snow at higher elevations, especially around ski resorts.
Central and Southern U.S. Will Likely See Green Christmas
A strong ridge of high pressure is raising temperatures in much of the central and southern U.S. This pattern will remove the snow in many areas. Regions affected include:
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Areas south of Interstate 80
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The I-95 corridor from New York City southward
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The Plains states
Most residents in these areas will likely experience a green, snowless Christmas.
Historical Odds and This Year’s Forecast
Historically, Minneapolis-St. Paul has had a 74% chance of snow on Christmas. This year, it remains one of the strongest contenders.
Other major cities show lower odds: Chicago (34%), Detroit (35%), and New York City (13%). A warmer pattern this year reduces chances even further.
Forecasts for Christmas Eve show only light snow in far northern New England. The rest of the Lower 48 is expected to enjoy clear skies and warmer temperatures, further decreasing snow chances.
For those dreaming of a snowy holiday, northernmost states and mountain regions are the safest bet. Most of the country, however, should prepare for a green Christmas in 2025. Snow lovers may need to travel north or to ski resorts to see a true White Christmas.
