The 50% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods — including basmati rice — has altered trade flows in the United States, creating a lucrative opening for Pakistan to expand its share in the American aromatic rice market.
Pakistan’s basmati rice exports have been on a steady upward trend. According to the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP), the country exported 772,725 tonnes in FY24, earning $876.9 million — up from 595,120 tonnes worth $650.4 million the previous year. The average export price per tonne rose from $1,092.93 to $1,134.86.
Data from Volza’s Global Trade platform shows that between November 2023 and October 2024, the US accounted for 24% of Pakistan’s basmati shipments (1,519 consignments), followed by Italy with 14% (908 consignments) and the UK with 11% (716 consignments).
Together, these three destinations consumed nearly half of Pakistan’s basmati exports. In total, Pakistan exports to more than 110 countries, with other major markets including Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Canada, the Netherlands, and Germany.
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), rice imports in the US have grown from 7% of the domestic market in 1993/94 to over 25% by 2022/23. More than 60% of these imports are aromatic varieties from Asia, particularly jasmine from Thailand and basmati from India and Pakistan. While the US produces some aromatic rice locally, it differs in quality and aroma from Asian varieties. USDA projections suggest continued growth in demand for imported aromatic rice.
The current tariff dispute stems from US punitive measures over India’s trade and energy ties with Russia, which triggered broad duties on Indian exports such as basmati rice, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Although some sectors later secured exemptions, basmati rice remained subject to the full 50% duty.
Pakistani basmati, by contrast, faces a lower 19% tariff, giving it a notable pricing edge in the US market. Indian media reports predict the tariff could slash India’s basmati exports to the US by 50–80%, pushing prices to around $1,800 per metric tonne. Pakistani basmati remains competitively priced at about $1,450 per metric tonne, making it more attractive to American importers and retailers.
US grocery retailers are already noticing the shift. “Pakistani rice is already popular,” said Khan Mohammed, a salesman at Super Halal grocery in Springfield, Virginia. “Now, with the price difference, more customers are choosing it.”
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