WASHINGTON: Recent intelligence assessments in the United States indicate that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near term, as it continues to use control of the vital oil route as leverage in its conflict with Washington.
According to officials familiar with the reports, Tehran views its grip on the waterway—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes—as its most effective tool to pressure US President Donald Trump into seeking a swift end to the war. Consequently, Iran may continue restricting access to keep global energy prices elevated.
Moreover, analysts warn that the conflict, initially aimed at weakening Iran’s military capabilities, may have instead strengthened its regional influence by demonstrating its ability to disrupt a critical global supply route.
While Trump has downplayed the difficulty of reopening the strait, he recently suggested that US forces could take action if needed. However, experts caution that any military attempt to secure the passage could be costly and risk a prolonged conflict.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Iran’s ability to influence global energy markets through the strait may be more powerful than conventional military capabilities.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has employed multiple tactics to disrupt shipping, including targeting commercial vessels and creating unsafe conditions for transit. As a result, oil prices have surged to multi-year highs, affecting economies worldwide.
A White House official expressed confidence that the strait would eventually reopen but noted that other nations dependent on Gulf energy supplies also have significant stakes in resolving the crisis.
Overall, intelligence findings suggest that Iran is unlikely to relinquish this strategic advantage soon, prolonging uncertainty in global energy markets and complicating efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
