Tehran/Jerusalem – Newly surfaced data and independent analyses have shed light on the true scale of Iran’s missile and drone attacks during Operation True Promise 3, calling into question official Israeli accounts and highlighting significant vulnerabilities in the joint U.S.-Israeli air defense systems.
According to a report by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)—two American think tanks—Iran launched 543 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 drones in its April 2024 retaliatory strike against Israel. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it fired over 3,000 projectiles, without specifying how many were ballistic.
Israeli military sources largely aligned with these figures, estimating 500 to 550 missile launches across 43 distinct attack waves. The CTP-ISW report recorded at least 60 instances of Iranian missiles or interceptor debris hitting Israeli territory—challenging earlier assertions of near-total interception success.
Civilian and Military Targets Hit
While Israel has officially acknowledged 36 impacts, independent investigations suggest the real number is significantly higher. A forensic mapping effort by Al Jazeera corroborated several high-profile impacts in key cities:
- Tel Aviv: Over 10 strikes in areas near the Kirya military headquarters and Camp Moshe Dayan reportedly damaged U.S. diplomatic annexes, schools, and residential buildings, injuring more than 60 people and killing one.
- Haifa: A missile hit the Bazan oil refinery, causing fires, structural damage, and reportedly 3–5 fatalities.
- Rehovot: The Weizmann Institute of Science was damaged, with injury estimates ranging from 42 to 125.
Analysts noted that many of the civilian injuries and property damage resulted from interceptor debris, indicating that missile defense systems were overwhelmed during peak attack waves.
Suppressed Military Impacts
Despite military censorship, multiple media investigations and satellite analyses have revealed significant strikes on sensitive military infrastructure:
- The Kirya Complex—Israel’s main military command center—was directly hit by a missile, according to Fox News, though Israeli authorities did not publicly confirm the impact.
- A satellite radar study by Oregon State University, shared with The Telegraph, identified six missile impacts on five undisclosed bases, including an airfield, an intelligence facility, and a logistical hub.
- Investigative reporters Avi Scharf and Bar Peleg from Haaretz uncovered 10 additional unreported strike sites, further illustrating the extent of censorship around military damage.
Economic Fallout and Damage Claims
Data from Israel’s Tax Authority, which oversees war-related compensation, revealed over 33,000 damage claims:
- Tel Aviv: 480 buildings damaged, including 20 severely.
- Ramat Gan: 237 buildings, 10 severely damaged.
- Bat Yam: 78 structures affected, 22 reportedly destroyed.
- Rishon LeZion: 200 buildings with structural damage.
Haifa’s damaged refinery is reportedly causing $3 million in daily losses, contributing to wider economic strain.
Interception Rates and Strategic Implications
Despite efforts by the U.S., UK, France, and Jordan to bolster Israeli defenses, The Telegraph reported that at least 16% of Iranian missiles evaded interception by Day 7 of the conflict—a figure analysts say is likely conservative.
Among the weapons used were Iran’s advanced Fattah hypersonic and Kheibar multi-warhead missiles. Analysts believe the strike showcased only a fraction—approximately 1%—of Iran’s missile stockpile, according to CTP-ISW estimates.
The data suggests that, even with extensive Western military support, Israel’s defensive shield remains vulnerable to sustained or large-scale missile attacks—raising concerns over regional escalation and the limits of current air defense technology.
