Decline
ISLAMABAD: The Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Update & Outlook released on Tuesday, projected headline inflation for October 2023 to range between 27% to 29%, marking a decline from the 31.4% year-on-year inflation observed in September 2023.
This shift in inflation is primarily attributed to the decrease in petrol and diesel prices, capitalizing on the drop in global crude oil rates and the strength of the domestic currency.
These developments are anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures within the country.
Additionally, efforts by subnational governments to implement lower fares for local public and freight transportation, aligning with reduced fuel costs, are expected to further ease the burden on consumer prices.
The report states, “Considering these factors, it is projected that inflation will be more effectively controlled compared to the elevated levels witnessed in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024.”
Conversely, estimates from MG Research suggest that headline inflation will stabilize at approximately 26.4-26.5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. Meanwhile, leading brokerage houses provided an average estimate of 26.39% year-on-year.
The report also anticipates that overall economic activity will remain positive throughout the current fiscal year, driven by a rebound in domestic economic activities and an improvement in inflationary pressures.
Moreover, government organizations’ recent coordinated efforts to address macroeconomic imbalances are aimed at achieving stability in the coming months and fostering sustainable, inclusive economic growth in the medium to long term.
Earlier, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) released its weekly inflation report, indicating a 0.11% increase in the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending on October 5.
According to the PBS data, the electricity and gas prices lifted inflation to 37.07 percent.
Out of a total of 51 items, during the week, prices rose for 19 items (37.26%), decreased for 16 items (31.37%), and remained stable for 16 items (31.37%).
